Football · Finland Ykkonen · 11/08, 17:30

Prediction: TPV vs SalPa

Team pages: TPV · SalPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

TPV1.75

SalPa2.11

1X2

31% 23% 45%

TPV Draw SalPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

TPV 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWLWL

SalPa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWWLLW

Head-to-head

TPV 1–5 SalPa (6 last)

SalPa4-2TPV
SalPa5-0TPV
TPV0-2SalPa
TPV1-4SalPa
SalPa2-4TPV
TPV1-3SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV 1491 · SalPa 1524

	TPV	Draw	SalPa
Our model	32%	22%	46%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SalPa: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV	SalPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.96
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +5’	2.90	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:05	2.96	3.75	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV 1–0–5 SalPa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	4-2 HT 3-1	TPV
11/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	SalPa	5-0 HT 2-0	TPV
07/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	0-2 HT 0-0	SalPa
17/06/20 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	1-4 HT 0-2	SalPa
30/09/17 Finland Kakkonen Group B	SalPa	2-4 HT 2-2	TPV
07/07/17 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	1-3 HT 0-1	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	18	12	3	3	41	15	39
2	RoPS	18	9	6	3	40	24	33
3	OLS	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
4	VJS Vantaa	19	7	8	4	33	24	29
5	SalPa	18	8	5	5	33	30	29
6	PK Keski-Uusimaa	18	7	6	5	33	26	27
7	JJK	18	7	4	7	41	35	25
8	FC Jazz	19	7	5	7	27	28	23
9	FC Inter II	18	5	5	8	30	44	20
10	TPV	18	5	4	9	27	36	19
11	KPV	19	3	3	13	18	58	12
12	KUPS Akatemia	18	2	5	11	29	42	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV	SalPa
OLS	2-4 L	0-5 L
RoPS	6-3 W	2-2 D
FC Jazz	0-4 L	2-1 W
KUPS Akatemia	3-1 W	4-3 W
KPV	3-1 W	0-3 L
JJK	1-0 W	2-1 W
VJS Vantaa	1-2 L	2-2 D
PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 D	0-1 L
FC Inter II	1-1 D	2-1 W
Tampere Utd	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: TPV (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV

LDDLWWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-4	5	4	L
01/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	6-3	0	1	W
24/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
05/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
29/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
14/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
06/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-3	2	1	L

SalPa

WLWDDWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
12/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-3	9	4	W
06/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
28/05	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV vs SalPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SalPa win (45%). Probabilities: TPV 31%, draw 23%, SalPa 45%.

How many goals are expected in TPV vs SalPa?

The model expects 3.86 goals (TPV 1.75 · SalPa 2.11), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV vs SalPa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.