Football · Brazil Serie A · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Remo

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Remo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Vasco da Gama2.03

Remo0.6

1X2

71% 20% 10%

Vasco da Gama Draw Remo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Remo 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 2–2–1 Remo (5 last)

Remo1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-2Remo
Remo2-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-1Remo
Remo0-1Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1538 · Remo 1421

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Remo
Our model	70%	21%	9%
Market	71%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1538 vs 1421).
H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Remo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +6’	1.33	5.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 2–2–1 Remo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Remo	1-1 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
19/11/21 Brazil Serie B	Vasco da Gama	2-2 HT 1-2	Remo
14/08/21 Brazil Serie B	Remo	2-1 HT 2-1	Vasco da Gama
28/04/16 Copa do Brasil	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 0-0	Remo
14/04/16 Copa do Brasil	Remo	0-1 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	28	12	7	9	37	32	43
8	Santos	28	11	8	9	43	41	41
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	28	10	6	12	33	32	36
10	Sao Paulo	28	10	6	12	33	32	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Remo
Coritiba	5-0 W	2-3 L
Fluminense	0-1 L	1-2 L
Santos	0-3 L	1-2 L
EC Bahia	0-0 D	1-2 L
Mirassol	1-1 D	1-2 L
Vitoria	0-1 L	2-0 W
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Remo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
15/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
01/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-3	9	4	L
22/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
18/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
30/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
27/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
24/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Remo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (71%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 71%, draw 20%, Remo 10%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Remo?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Vasco da Gama 2.03 · Remo 0.6), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Remo?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.