Football · Latvia Virsliga · 09/08, 15:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja

Team pages: SK Super Nova · FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

SK Super Nova1.19

FK Liepaja1.59

1X2

28% 27% 46%

SK Super Nova Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWLWW

FK Liepaja 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 2–1–3 FK Liepaja (6 last)

FK Liepaja2-1SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-2FK Liepaja
SK Super Nova3-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0-3SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-3FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-2SK Super Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1472 · FK Liepaja 1470

	SK Super Nova	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	27%	27%	45%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.53 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.58
2	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +4’	3.00	3.40	2.10
19:52 +6’	3.10▲	3.40	2.05▼
23:08	3.20▲	3.40	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:50 +7’	3.42	3.54	1.99
23:08	3.31▼	3.52▼	2.03▲
00:21	3.53▲	3.58▲	1.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 2–1–3 FK Liepaja

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 2-1	SK Super Nova
23/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Liepaja
09/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Liepaja
25/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Super Nova
17/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-3 HT 0-3	FK Liepaja
25/04/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-2 HT 2-0	SK Super Nova

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	24	20	2	2	56	16	62
2	Riga FC	24	19	4	1	72	20	61
3	FK Auda	23	13	4	6	38	26	43
4	BFC Daugavpils	26	10	6	10	33	31	36
5	FK Liepaja	24	9	4	11	31	36	31
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	25	6	7	12	25	43	25
8	SC Grobinas	25	4	9	12	17	41	21
9	Tukums 2000	26	4	8	14	40	51	20
10	Ogre United	24	3	5	16	23	61	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	FK Liepaja
Tukums 2000	2-1 W	1-2 L
Ogre United	1-2 L	4-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-5 L	2-0 W
FK Auda	0-2 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	1-3 L
RFS	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SK Super Nova

LLLDLLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
11/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Cup	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-5	3	5	L
21/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
16/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
12/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
29/05	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
24/05	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-3	8	4	L

FK Liepaja

LWLWLWLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
30/07	FK Austria Vienna UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-2	1-3	3	4	L
26/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/07	FK Austria Vienna UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
15/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
11/07	FK Auda Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (46%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 28%, draw 27%, FK Liepaja 46%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 2.78 goals (SK Super Nova 1.19 · FK Liepaja 1.59), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.