Football · Latvia Virsliga · 09/08, 15:00

Prediction: FK Jelgava vs FK Auda

Team pages: FK Jelgava · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

FK Jelgava1.11

FK Auda1.42

1X2

29% 28% 43%

FK Jelgava Draw FK Auda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jelgava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLLLLL

FK Auda 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Jelgava 1–2–3 FK Auda (6 last)

FK Auda1-1FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava2-3FK Auda
FK Jelgava1-1FK Auda
FK Auda2-0FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava3-1FK Auda
FK Auda2-0FK Jelgava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jelgava 1455 · FK Auda 1571

	FK Jelgava	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	29%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1455 vs 1571).
H2H favours FK Auda: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jelgava	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.8 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.17 ★
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +7’	2.90	3.40	2.10
19:27 +31’	3.10▲	3.25▼	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:50 +7’	3.17	3.24	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 1–2–3 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Jelgava
21/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	2-3 HT 2-1	FK Auda
27/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Auda
05/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava
15/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Auda
30/03/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	24	20	2	2	56	16	62
2	Riga FC	24	19	4	1	72	20	61
3	FK Auda	23	13	4	6	38	26	43
4	BFC Daugavpils	26	10	6	10	33	31	36
5	FK Liepaja	24	9	4	11	31	36	31
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	25	6	7	12	25	43	25
8	SC Grobinas	25	4	9	12	17	41	21
9	Tukums 2000	26	4	8	14	40	51	20
10	Ogre United	24	3	5	16	23	61	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jelgava	FK Auda
BFC Daugavpils	1-2 L	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	0-2 L	1-0 W
RFS	0-1 L	1-1 D
Riga FC	0-3 L	0-2 L
SC Grobinas	2-0 W	0-0 D
SK Super Nova	5-1 W	2-0 W
Tukums 2000	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Jelgava

DLWWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
26/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
20/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
12/07	RFS Latvia Cup	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
03/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-1	5-1	5	5	W
21/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
17/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
13/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D

FK Auda

LWDLDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
30/07	FCSB UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
23/07	FCSB UEFA Conference League Qualifying	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
11/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jelgava vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Auda win (43%). Probabilities: FK Jelgava 29%, draw 28%, FK Auda 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jelgava vs FK Auda?

The model expects 2.54 goals (FK Jelgava 1.11 · FK Auda 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jelgava vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.