Football · Latvia Virsliga · 10/08, 18:30

Prediction: RFS vs SC Grobinas

Team pages: RFS · SC Grobinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

RFS2.61

SC Grobinas0.61

1X2

81% 13% 6%

RFS Draw SC Grobinas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

RFS 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWDL

SC Grobinas 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWWLDL

Head-to-head

RFS 6–0 SC Grobinas (6 last)

SC Grobinas1-3RFS
SC Grobinas0-1RFS
RFS5-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas2-3RFS
RFS6-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-4RFS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS 1624 · SC Grobinas 1455

	RFS	Draw	SC Grobinas
Our model	79%	15%	6%
Market	82%	12%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1624 vs 1455).
H2H favours RFS: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS	SC Grobinas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.80

2 (+2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32	1.13	8.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS 6–0–0 SC Grobinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-3 HT 0-2	RFS
22/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-1 HT 0-0	RFS
26/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	5-0 HT 3-0	SC Grobinas
03/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-3 HT 1-2	RFS
31/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	6-0 HT 4-0	SC Grobinas
15/04/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-4 HT 0-1	RFS

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	24	20	2	2	56	16	62
2	Riga FC	24	19	4	1	72	20	61
3	FK Auda	23	13	4	6	38	26	43
4	BFC Daugavpils	26	10	6	10	33	31	36
5	FK Liepaja	24	9	4	11	31	36	31
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	25	6	7	12	25	43	25
8	SC Grobinas	25	4	9	12	17	41	21
9	Tukums 2000	26	4	8	14	40	51	20
10	Ogre United	24	3	5	16	23	61	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS	SC Grobinas
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	3-1 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	0-2 L
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-0 D
BFC Daugavpils	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

RFS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	FK Jablonec UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
30/07	IF Vestri UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
27/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
23/07	IF Vestri UEFA Conference League Qualifying	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
20/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
16/07	Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Cup	1-0	2-0	14	3	W
09/07	Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
04/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
30/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W

SC Grobinas

LWLDLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
12/07	Marupes SC Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
29/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
25/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
16/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
13/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS win (81%). Probabilities: RFS 81%, draw 13%, SC Grobinas 6%.

How many goals are expected in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

The model expects 3.22 goals (RFS 2.61 · SC Grobinas 0.61), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.