Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/10, 02:30

Prediction: Palmeiras vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Palmeiras · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Palmeiras1.93

EC Bahia0.9

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Palmeiras Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Palmeiras 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDDWD

EC Bahia 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWWWWL

Head-to-head

Palmeiras 4–2 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia1-2Palmeiras
EC Bahia1-0Palmeiras
Palmeiras0-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-2Palmeiras
Palmeiras2-0EC Bahia
Palmeiras1-0EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmeiras 1559 · EC Bahia 1535

	Palmeiras	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Palmeiras: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmeiras	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.1	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.56
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.34 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +20’	1.53	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:35 +956’	1.56	4.34	5.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 4–0–2 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-2 HT 0-1	Palmeiras
28/09/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 0-0	Palmeiras
27/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	0-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
20/11/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-2 HT 1-1	Palmeiras
07/07/24 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	2-0 HT 1-0	EC Bahia
29/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmeiras	EC Bahia
Vasco da Gama	4-1 W	0-0 D
Fluminense	2-3 L	0-0 D
Internacional	0-0 D	3-2 W
Vitoria	4-0 W	2-0 W
Atletico Mineiro	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: EC Bahia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmeiras

WLWDLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	10	D
12/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
06/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
30/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
09/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
27/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

EC Bahia

DDDDDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (61%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 61%, draw 23%, EC Bahia 16%.

How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Palmeiras 1.93 · EC Bahia 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.