Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 10/09, 17:00

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Sogdiana Jizzakh

Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Sogdiana Jizzakh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Xorazm Urganch1.32

Sogdiana Jizzakh1.54

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Sogdiana Jizzakh

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDLLL

Sogdiana Jizzakh 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 0–3 Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 last)

Sogdiana Jizzakh2-0Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-2Sogdiana Jizzakh
Sogdiana Jizzakh1-0Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1428 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1548

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sogdiana Jizzakh (rating 1428 vs 1548).
H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Sogdiana Jizzakh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.98 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +2’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +3’	2.98	3.29	2.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 0–0–3 Sogdiana Jizzakh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-0 HT 1-0	Xorazm Urganch
09/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	0-2 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh
19/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	20	7	6	7	30	31	27
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	20	8	3	9	37	41	27
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	20	8	2	10	20	28	26
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	FK Kokand 1912	20	4	8	8	18	27	20
14	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Sogdiana Jizzakh
FK Andijan	0-1 L	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-3 L	1-3 L
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	5-2 W
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sogdiana Jizzakh (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Xorazm Urganch

LLLWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L

Sogdiana Jizzakh

LWLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-2	3	1	W
23/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
13/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	1	3	W
06/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
02/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
27/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
21/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
02/05	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sogdiana Jizzakh win (41%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 32%, draw 27%, Sogdiana Jizzakh 41%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.32 · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.54), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Sogdiana Jizzakh?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.