Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/09, 17:00

Prediction: Nasaf Qarshi vs FC Bunyodkor

Team pages: Nasaf Qarshi · FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Nasaf Qarshi2.21

FC Bunyodkor0.81

1X2

69% 19% 12%

Nasaf Qarshi Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nasaf Qarshi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDLLLW

FC Bunyodkor 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Nasaf Qarshi 1–4–1 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

FC Bunyodkor1-3Nasaf Qarshi
FC Bunyodkor2-2Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi2-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor2-2Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi0-0FC Bunyodkor
Nasaf Qarshi0-1FC Bunyodkor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasaf Qarshi 1513 · FC Bunyodkor 1392

	Nasaf Qarshi	Draw	FC Bunyodkor
Our model	69%	20%	11%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nasaf Qarshi (rating 1513 vs 1392).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasaf Qarshi	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.75

27.50

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.49 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:34 +2’	1.30	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +83’	1.49	4.29	5.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasaf Qarshi 1–4–1 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-3 HT 1-1	Nasaf Qarshi
04/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-2 HT 2-1	Nasaf Qarshi
10/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor
28/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-2 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
13/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Bunyodkor
24/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	20	7	6	7	30	31	27
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	20	8	3	9	37	41	27
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	20	8	2	10	20	28	26
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	FK Kokand 1912	20	4	8	8	18	27	20
14	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasaf Qarshi	FC Bunyodkor
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	0-3 L
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	3-4 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Kokand 1912	0-0 D	0-1 L
AGMK	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nasaf Qarshi

DWDWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	4-0	6-2	7	3	W
26/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

FC Bunyodkor

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
02/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasaf Qarshi vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasaf Qarshi win (69%). Probabilities: Nasaf Qarshi 69%, draw 19%, FC Bunyodkor 12%.

How many goals are expected in Nasaf Qarshi vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Nasaf Qarshi 2.21 · FC Bunyodkor 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasaf Qarshi vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.