Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 10/09, 16:00

Prediction: Dinamo Samarqand vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Team pages: Dinamo Samarqand · Qizilqum Zarafshon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Dinamo Samarqand1.63

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.96

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Dinamo Samarqand Draw Qizilqum Zarafshon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Samarqand 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDWDD

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dinamo Samarqand 5–1 Qizilqum Zarafshon (6 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon1-2Dinamo Samarqand
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-0Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand3-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-2Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand2-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Dinamo Samarqand1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Samarqand 1540 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1506

	Dinamo Samarqand	Draw	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	52%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dinamo Samarqand: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Samarqand	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +2’	1.73	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Samarqand 5–0–1 Qizilqum Zarafshon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Samarqand
24/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Samarqand
25/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	3-2 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
02/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-2 HT 1-1	Dinamo Samarqand
30/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	2-0 HT 2-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
18/04/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Dinamo Samarqand	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	20	7	6	7	30	31	27
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	20	8	3	9	37	41	27
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	20	8	2	10	20	28	26
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	FK Kokand 1912	20	4	8	8	18	27	20
14	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Samarqand	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 L	0-1 L
Neftchi Fergana	0-0 D	0-5 L
Mashal Mubarek	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Samarqand (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
14/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LLDLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
02/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Samarqand vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Samarqand win (52%). Probabilities: Dinamo Samarqand 52%, draw 27%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 21%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Samarqand vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Dinamo Samarqand 1.63 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.96), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Samarqand vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.