Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/09, 15:30

Prediction: AGMK vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Team pages: AGMK · Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

AGMK1.1

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.46

1X2

28% 28% 45%

AGMK Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLLDW

Pakhtakor Tashkent 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDWDDW

Head-to-head

AGMK 4–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent (6 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent3-1AGMK
Pakhtakor Tashkent1-2AGMK
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-1AGMK
AGMK2-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent0-2AGMK
AGMK4-2Pakhtakor Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1520 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1553

	AGMK	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	27%	29%	44%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AGMK: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.4	3.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.30

22.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.51
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.72 ★
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +11’	3.20	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +50’	3.55	3.73	1.89
17:03 +92’	3.51▼	3.72▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 4–0–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	3-1 HT 2-0	AGMK
05/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 HT 0-1	AGMK
09/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-1 HT 1-1	AGMK
16/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-0 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
21/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-1	AGMK
21/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	4-2 HT 1-2	Pakhtakor Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	20	7	6	7	30	31	27
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	20	8	3	9	37	41	27
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	20	8	2	10	20	28	26
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	FK Kokand 1912	20	4	8	8	18	27	20
14	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Xorazm Urganch	1-0 W	2-1 W
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	0-0 D
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Bunyodkor	3-2 W	1-0 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGMK

DWWWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Pakhtakor Tashkent

DDWWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pakhtakor Tashkent win (45%). Probabilities: AGMK 28%, draw 28%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 45%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.56 goals (AGMK 1.1 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.46), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.