Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/09, 15:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Dinamo Samarqand

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Navbahor Namangan2.05

Dinamo Samarqand0.83

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWWWDW

Dinamo Samarqand 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWDDW

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 4–2–0 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Dinamo Samarqand1-2Navbahor Namangan
Dinamo Samarqand2-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-0Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand0-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan3-1Dinamo Samarqand
Navbahor Namangan2-0Dinamo Samarqand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1581 · Dinamo Samarqand 1534

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	65%	22%	13%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1581 vs 1534).
H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.7	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.38▼	Pinn 1.39
X	3.90 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.71
2	5.50 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.71 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +4’	1.48	3.90	5.50
12:09 +5’	1.38▼	4.50▲	6.25▲
13:51 +1’	1.38	4.33▼	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:23 +11’	1.44	4.32	6.67
09:13 +7’	1.44▲	4.31▼	6.65▼
10:18 +19’	1.45▲	4.27▼	6.53▼
12:09 +5’	1.38▼	4.60▲	7.44▲
13:00 +52’	1.39▲	4.71▲	7.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 4–2–0 Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-2 HT 1-2	Navbahor Namangan
02/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 HT 2-0	Navbahor Namangan
09/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
12/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
01/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	3-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Samarqand
09/10/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	21	13	7	1	37	19	46
3	Navbahor Namangan	21	12	5	4	36	19	41
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	21	10	5	6	36	27	35
5	FK Buxoro	21	10	4	7	31	27	34
6	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	21	8	6	7	31	31	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
14	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	21	6	1	14	20	35	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	21	1	1	19	10	42	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Dinamo Samarqand
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 D	1-2 L
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	2-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	5-1 W	2-2 D
Neftchi Fergana	1-1 D	0-0 D
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 D	1-0 W
AGMK	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	9	5	W
04/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
26/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
21/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L

Dinamo Samarqand

WWWDLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
05/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
14/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (65%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 65%, draw 21%, Dinamo Samarqand 14%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Navbahor Namangan 2.05 · Dinamo Samarqand 0.83), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.