Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/09, 17:15

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Qizilqum Zarafshon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Xorazm Urganch1.21

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.89

1X2

43% 30% 27%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Qizilqum Zarafshon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Qizilqum Zarafshon 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 1–1–2 Qizilqum Zarafshon (4 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon0-0Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon0-3Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch1-4Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1444 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1476

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model	42%	32%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Qizilqum Zarafshon: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	1.3 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +8’	2.05	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 1–1–2 Qizilqum Zarafshon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-0 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch
18/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	0-1 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
06/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-3 HT 0-2	Xorazm Urganch
22/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	Xorazm Urganch	1-4 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	22	14	7	1	39	20	49
2	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	21	10	5	6	36	27	35
5	FK Buxoro	22	10	4	8	32	29	34
6	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	FC Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	22	36	22
14	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
15	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
16	Mashal Mubarek	22	1	1	20	11	44	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-0 D	1-2 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-3 L	0-1 L
Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 D	0-1 L
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	2-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	1-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Xorazm Urganch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
25/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
07/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LLDLLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Xorazm Urganch win (43%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 43%, draw 30%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 27%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.21 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.89), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.