Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 05/09, 17:15

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · FK Buxoro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.13

FK Buxoro1.16

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLWLW

FK Buxoro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 2–1–3 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro2-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro2-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
FK Buxoro1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro1-1Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1473 · FK Buxoro 1549

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	FK Buxoro
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Buxoro (rating 1473 vs 1549).
H2H favours FK Buxoro: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.9	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +5’	2.55	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +3’	2.80	2.97	2.61
22:48	2.78▼	3.00▲	2.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 2–1–3 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-0 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
08/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro
14/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-0 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
05/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-0 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
12/03/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro
19/11/20 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-1 HT 1-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	19	10	4	5	28	20	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	19	7	5	7	29	30	26
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	19	7	3	9	32	39	24
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	19	7	2	10	17	26	23
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
14	FK Kokand 1912	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	19	1	1	17	8	34	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	FK Buxoro
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-2 L	2-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	1-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-5 L	4-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	3-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qizilqum Zarafshon

DLLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
02/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

FK Buxoro

WWLWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Buxoro win (36%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 34%, draw 30%, FK Buxoro 36%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.13 · FK Buxoro 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.