Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/09, 16:00

Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs Termez Surkhon

Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Neftchi Fergana2.13

Termez Surkhon0.74

1X2

69% 19% 11%

Neftchi Fergana Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Fergana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWLWL

Termez Surkhon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Neftchi Fergana 2–4–0 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Termez Surkhon0-3Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana2-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-0Neftchi Fergana
Termez Surkhon0-0Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-1Termez Surkhon
Neftchi Fergana1-1Termez Surkhon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1566 · Termez Surkhon 1455

	Neftchi Fergana	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	69%	21%	11%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1566 vs 1455).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Fergana	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.6	2.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

27.50

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.76

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.30
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.34
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 8.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:34 +1’	1.28	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +30’	1.30	5.34	8.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 2–4–0 Termez Surkhon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-3 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
02/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-1 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
15/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
09/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
15/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-1 HT 1-1	Termez Surkhon
22/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-1 HT 1-1	Termez Surkhon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	20	14	3	3	47	16	45
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	20	12	7	1	34	18	43
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	20	9	5	6	28	25	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	20	7	7	6	26	20	28
8	FK Andijan	20	8	3	9	24	23	27
9	Dinamo Samarqand	20	7	6	7	30	31	27
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	20	8	3	9	37	41	27
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	20	8	2	10	20	28	26
12	Termez Surkhon	20	6	5	9	17	26	23
13	FK Kokand 1912	20	4	8	8	18	27	20
14	Xorazm Urganch	20	5	5	10	17	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	20	6	1	13	20	32	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Fergana	Termez Surkhon
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-0 W	1-3 L
FK Andijan	3-0 W	2-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	0-0 D	1-2 L
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	0-1 L
AGMK	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neftchi Fergana

DWWDDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-4	2-6	5	3	L
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Termez Surkhon

DWLLWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	13	4	W
25/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
13/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (69%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 69%, draw 19%, Termez Surkhon 11%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.13 · Termez Surkhon 0.74), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.