Football · Brazil Serie A · 09/10, 00:30

Prediction: Santos vs Flamengo

Team pages: Santos · Flamengo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Santos1.13

Flamengo1.79

1X2

23% 26% 52%

Santos Draw Flamengo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Santos 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDWWWW

Flamengo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Santos 2–4 Flamengo (6 last)

Flamengo3-1Santos
Flamengo3-2Santos
Santos1-0Flamengo
Flamengo1-2Santos
Santos2-3Flamengo
Flamengo3-2Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santos 1534 · Flamengo 1619

	Santos	Draw	Flamengo
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	23%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1534 vs 1619).
H2H favours Flamengo: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santos	Flamengo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.1	3.8 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.02

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.12
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.84

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +3’	4.10	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +22’	4.12	3.77	1.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 2–0–4 Flamengo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	3-1 HT 0-0	Santos
09/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	3-2 HT 1-0	Santos
17/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-0 HT 0-0	Flamengo
02/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	1-2 HT 1-1	Santos
25/06/23 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-3 HT 1-1	Flamengo
26/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	3-2 HT 1-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santos	Flamengo
Remo	2-1 W	1-0 W
Cruzeiro	2-1 W	1-2 L
Internacional	3-2 W	1-1 D
Corinthians	1-0 W	2-1 W
Mirassol	1-1 D	2-0 W
Botafogo	1-2 L	3-0 W
Vitoria	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santos

WLDLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W

Flamengo

DDWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
13/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	20	6	W
06/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
03/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	9	2	W
30/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	5-1	3	3	W
10/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santos vs Flamengo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Flamengo win (52%). Probabilities: Santos 23%, draw 26%, Flamengo 52%.

How many goals are expected in Santos vs Flamengo?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Santos 1.13 · Flamengo 1.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.