Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 30/08, 13:45

Prediction: Umeå FC vs Vasalunds IF

Team pages: Umeå FC · Vasalunds IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Umeå FC1.6

Vasalunds IF1.43

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Umeå FC Draw Vasalunds IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLLLD

Vasalunds IF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLDWDW

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 2–1–3 Vasalunds IF (6 last)

Vasalunds IF3-1Umeå FC
Vasalunds IF1-2Umeå FC
Umeå FC1-1Vasalunds IF
Umeå FC0-1Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF1-2Umeå FC
Vasalunds IF2-1Umeå FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1422 · Vasalunds IF 1528

	Umeå FC	Draw	Vasalunds IF
Our model	40%	26%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasalunds IF (rating 1422 vs 1528).
H2H favours Vasalunds IF: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	Vasalunds IF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.23
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.98 ★
2	2.38 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:33 +5’	2.38	3.60	2.38
23:53 +5’	2.15▼	3.60	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +1’	2.23	3.98	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 2–1–3 Vasalunds IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	3-1 HT 0-0	Umeå FC
18/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-2 HT 1-2	Umeå FC
25/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Vasalunds IF
24/09/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Vasalunds IF
11/06/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-2 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
11/09/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	2-1 HT 0-0	Umeå FC

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	18	11	4	3	45	15	37
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	18	11	3	4	29	15	36
4	FC Arlanda	18	9	6	3	30	20	33
5	AFC Eskilstuna	18	9	4	5	31	25	31
6	Enkopings SK	18	9	2	7	27	28	29
7	FBK Karlstad	18	8	4	6	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	18	7	3	8	28	28	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	18	6	5	7	30	31	23
10	Vasalunds IF	18	6	5	7	28	35	23
11	Gefle IF	18	7	2	9	23	35	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	18	4	8	6	17	25	20
13	Umeå FC	18	4	5	9	21	30	17
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	Piteå IF	18	2	6	10	18	36	12
16	IFK Stocksund	18	2	5	11	36	44	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	Vasalunds IF
Enkopings SK	0-0 D	1-1 D
AFC Eskilstuna	1-3 L	3-0 W
FC Järfälla	1-3 L	3-1 W
Piteå IF	2-0 W	1-1 D
Sollentuna United FF	1-1 D	1-1 D
IFK Stocksund	2-2 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vasalunds IF (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Umeå FC

LDDWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
07/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
31/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Vasalunds IF

WWLDLLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	6	2	W
16/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
18/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
14/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
08/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
03/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
24/05	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs Vasalunds IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Umeå FC win (41%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 41%, draw 25%, Vasalunds IF 34%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs Vasalunds IF?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Umeå FC 1.6 · Vasalunds IF 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Vasalunds IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.