Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll

Team pages: Gefle IF · IF Karlstad Fotboll

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Gefle IF1.33

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.43

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Gefle IF Draw IF Karlstad Fotboll

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWLWW

IF Karlstad Fotboll 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 0–2–1 IF Karlstad Fotboll (3 last)

IF Karlstad Fotboll2-0Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-1IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll2-2Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1501 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1524

	Gefle IF	Draw	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 3.08 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +3’	2.60	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +1’	3.75	3.64	1.81
14:38 +1’	3.08▼	3.48▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 0–2–1 IF Karlstad Fotboll

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-0 HT 1-0	Gefle IF
21/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-1 HT 1-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll
28/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-2 HT 2-0	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	18	11	4	3	45	15	37
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	18	11	3	4	29	15	36
4	FC Arlanda	18	9	6	3	30	20	33
5	AFC Eskilstuna	18	9	4	5	31	25	31
6	Enkopings SK	18	9	2	7	27	28	29
7	FBK Karlstad	18	8	4	6	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	18	7	3	8	28	28	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	18	6	5	7	30	31	23
10	Vasalunds IF	18	6	5	7	28	35	23
11	Gefle IF	18	7	2	9	23	35	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	18	4	8	6	17	25	20
13	Umeå FC	18	4	5	9	21	30	17
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	Piteå IF	18	2	6	10	18	36	12
16	IFK Stocksund	18	2	5	11	36	44	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	0-2 L
Umeå FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Arlanda	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Järfälla	0-4 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gefle IF (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

LWLLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
06/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
01/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-2	0	3	W
23/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-4	8	4	L

IF Karlstad Fotboll

WDWWDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
15/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
02/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
21/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
13/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
30/05	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
24/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IF Karlstad Fotboll win (39%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 34%, draw 27%, IF Karlstad Fotboll 39%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Gefle IF 1.33 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.43), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.