Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 30/08, 13:00

Prediction: FBK Karlstad vs Piteå IF

Team pages: FBK Karlstad · Piteå IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

FBK Karlstad2.07

Piteå IF1.15

1X2

58% 23% 20%

FBK Karlstad Draw Piteå IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FBK Karlstad 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLDWL

Piteå IF 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLLDDD

Head-to-head

FBK Karlstad 2–1 Piteå IF (3 last)

Piteå IF1-5FBK Karlstad
Piteå IF2-3FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad2-3Piteå IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBK Karlstad 1496 · Piteå IF 1433

	FBK Karlstad	Draw	Piteå IF
Our model	58%	23%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBK Karlstad (rating 1496 vs 1433).
H2H favours FBK Karlstad: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBK Karlstad	Piteå IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.2 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.19 ★
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +22’	1.50	4.00	4.75
14:34 +22’	1.75▲	3.70▼	3.50▼
17:54 +16’	1.55▼	4.00▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +1’	1.58	4.00	4.30
14:56 +1’	1.60▲	4.12▲	4.44▲
18:10	1.57▼	4.19▲	4.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBK Karlstad 2–0–1 Piteå IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	1-5 HT 1-2	FBK Karlstad
06/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	2-3 HT 0-0	FBK Karlstad
23/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	2-3 HT 0-1	Piteå IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	18	11	4	3	45	15	37
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	18	11	3	4	29	15	36
4	FC Arlanda	18	9	6	3	30	20	33
5	AFC Eskilstuna	18	9	4	5	31	25	31
6	Enkopings SK	18	9	2	7	27	28	29
7	FBK Karlstad	18	8	4	6	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	18	7	3	8	28	28	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	18	6	5	7	30	31	23
10	Vasalunds IF	18	6	5	7	28	35	23
11	Gefle IF	18	7	2	9	23	35	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	18	4	8	6	17	25	20
13	Umeå FC	18	4	5	9	21	30	17
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	Piteå IF	18	2	6	10	18	36	12
16	IFK Stocksund	18	2	5	11	36	44	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBK Karlstad	Piteå IF
FC Arlanda	1-5 L	0-0 D
Enkopings SK	2-0 W	0-2 L
Hammarby TFF	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sollentuna United FF	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-3 L	2-2 D
Karlbergs BK	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FBK Karlstad (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBK Karlstad

DDLLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
09/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L
18/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
05/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
31/05	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	0	D

Piteå IF

DDLLDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
01/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
24/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
12/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
07/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
31/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
24/05	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBK Karlstad vs Piteå IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBK Karlstad win (58%). Probabilities: FBK Karlstad 58%, draw 23%, Piteå IF 20%.

How many goals are expected in FBK Karlstad vs Piteå IF?

The model expects 3.22 goals (FBK Karlstad 2.07 · Piteå IF 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FBK Karlstad vs Piteå IF?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.