Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: Hammarby TFF vs IFK Stocksund

Team pages: Hammarby TFF · IFK Stocksund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Hammarby TFF2.95

IFK Stocksund1.06

1X2

75% 15% 10%

Hammarby TFF Draw IFK Stocksund

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby TFF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDLWDL

IFK Stocksund 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Hammarby TFF 2–1–3 IFK Stocksund (6 last)

IFK Stocksund2-4Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF4-1IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund2-0Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF0-0IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund1-0Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF0-1IFK Stocksund

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby TFF 1522 · IFK Stocksund 1411

	Hammarby TFF	Draw	IFK Stocksund
Our model	75%	15%	10%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby TFF (rating 1522 vs 1411).
H2H favours IFK Stocksund: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby TFF	IFK Stocksund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:24 +6’	1.20	6.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby TFF 2–1–3 IFK Stocksund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	2-4 HT 1-1	Hammarby TFF
03/11/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	4-1 HT 2-0	IFK Stocksund
19/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	2-0 HT 1-0	Hammarby TFF
06/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	0-0 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund
20/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	1-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF
06/10/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	0-1 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	55	19	51
2	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	41	30	43
3	Hammarby TFF	23	12	6	5	48	22	42
4	FC Arlanda	23	12	6	5	40	27	42
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	23	11	6	6	35	23	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	36	32	39
7	Enkopings SK	23	12	3	8	37	38	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	23	9	5	9	42	40	32
9	Gefle IF	23	9	3	11	29	41	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	31	37	29
11	Karlbergs BK	23	8	4	11	29	38	28
12	Sollentuna United FF	23	5	9	9	21	31	24
13	Vasalunds IF	23	6	6	11	34	48	24
14	Piteå IF	23	4	6	13	27	44	18
15	FC Järfälla	23	5	3	15	30	50	18
16	IFK Stocksund	23	3	5	15	43	58	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby TFF	IFK Stocksund
FC Arlanda	2-4 L	2-3 L
Vasalunds IF	0-0 D	3-4 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-3 L	2-5 L
Karlbergs BK	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby TFF (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby TFF

WWDLDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	2-4	6	2	L
17/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
31/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
14/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
09/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
03/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-1	3	5	W
26/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	7-0	8	1	W

IFK Stocksund

LLWLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
17/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-5	2-5	5	2	L
12/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
04/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
29/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-3	8	6	L
23/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	5	2	L
15/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	6	3	W
01/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby TFF vs IFK Stocksund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby TFF win (75%). Probabilities: Hammarby TFF 75%, draw 15%, IFK Stocksund 10%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby TFF vs IFK Stocksund?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Hammarby TFF 2.95 · IFK Stocksund 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby TFF vs IFK Stocksund?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.