Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 04/10, 13:00

Prediction: Vasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: Vasalunds IF · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Vasalunds IF1.77

FC Arlanda1.73

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Vasalunds IF Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasalunds IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLDLW

FC Arlanda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Vasalunds IF 0–1–2 FC Arlanda (3 last)

FC Arlanda2-1Vasalunds IF
FC Arlanda4-1Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF0-0FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasalunds IF 1464 · FC Arlanda 1527

	Vasalunds IF	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1464 vs 1527).
H2H favours FC Arlanda: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasalunds IF	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:38 +9’	2.35	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasalunds IF 0–1–2 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	2-1 HT 1-0	Vasalunds IF
26/10/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	4-1 HT 2-0	Vasalunds IF
27/04/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	57	20	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	45	32	46
3	Hammarby TFF	24	13	6	5	50	23	45
4	FC Arlanda	24	13	6	5	42	27	45
5	FBK Karlstad	24	12	6	6	39	33	42
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	24	11	7	6	36	24	40
7	Enkopings SK	24	12	3	9	37	40	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	24	9	5	10	43	42	32
9	Gefle IF	24	9	3	12	29	42	30
10	Umeå FC	24	8	5	11	32	40	29
11	Karlbergs BK	24	8	5	11	30	39	29
12	Vasalunds IF	24	7	6	11	35	48	27
13	Sollentuna United FF	24	5	9	10	22	33	24
14	Piteå IF	24	5	6	13	29	45	21
15	FC Järfälla	24	5	3	16	32	54	18
16	IFK Stocksund	24	3	5	16	44	60	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasalunds IF	FC Arlanda
Gefle IF	1-0 W	2-0 W
Hammarby TFF	0-0 D	4-2 W
FBK Karlstad	1-2 L	5-1 W
Enkopings SK	2-3 L	2-0 W
Umeå FC	2-3 L	1-2 L
IFK Stocksund	4-3 W	3-2 W
Piteå IF	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arlanda (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasalunds IF

DWDWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
21/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-5	2	4	L
17/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
06/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	0	L
30/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
23/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	6	2	W
16/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D

FC Arlanda

LDLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-2	1	2	W
16/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasalunds IF win (38%). Probabilities: Vasalunds IF 38%, draw 25%, FC Arlanda 37%.

How many goals are expected in Vasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Vasalunds IF 1.77 · FC Arlanda 1.73), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.