Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Piteå IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll

Team pages: Piteå IF · IF Karlstad Fotboll

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Piteå IF1.01

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.8

1X2

20% 24% 55%

Piteå IF Draw IF Karlstad Fotboll

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Piteå IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWLLWW

IF Karlstad Fotboll 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Piteå IF 1–4 IF Karlstad Fotboll (5 last)

IF Karlstad Fotboll2-1Piteå IF
Piteå IF0-6IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll6-0Piteå IF
IF Karlstad Fotboll1-2Piteå IF
Piteå IF1-2IF Karlstad Fotboll

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piteå IF 1472 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1467

	Piteå IF	Draw	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IF Karlstad Fotboll: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piteå IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:36 +4’	4.33	3.80	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Piteå IF 1–0–4 IF Karlstad Fotboll

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-1 HT 2-0	Piteå IF
04/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	0-6 HT 0-4	IF Karlstad Fotboll
01/07/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	6-0 HT 4-0	Piteå IF
03/09/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-2 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
29/07/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	1-2 HT 0-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	57	20	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	45	32	46
3	Hammarby TFF	24	13	6	5	50	23	45
4	FC Arlanda	24	13	6	5	42	27	45
5	FBK Karlstad	24	12	6	6	39	33	42
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	24	11	7	6	36	24	40
7	Enkopings SK	24	12	3	9	37	40	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	24	9	5	10	43	42	32
9	Gefle IF	24	9	3	12	29	42	30
10	Umeå FC	24	8	5	11	32	40	29
11	Karlbergs BK	24	8	5	11	30	39	29
12	Vasalunds IF	24	7	6	11	35	48	27
13	Sollentuna United FF	24	5	9	10	22	33	24
14	Piteå IF	24	5	6	13	29	45	21
15	FC Järfälla	24	5	3	16	32	54	18
16	IFK Stocksund	24	3	5	16	44	60	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piteå IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Järfälla	3-1 W	4-1 W
AFC Eskilstuna	0-1 L	1-2 L
Karlbergs BK	3-0 W	1-1 D
FBK Karlstad	3-4 L	0-0 D
Gefle IF	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IF Karlstad Fotboll (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piteå IF

LDDDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
20/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	3-1	5	7	W
16/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
13/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
06/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
30/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	8	0	L
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
01/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	1	2	L

IF Karlstad Fotboll

WWLLDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
16/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
05/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
15/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
02/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piteå IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IF Karlstad Fotboll win (55%). Probabilities: Piteå IF 20%, draw 24%, IF Karlstad Fotboll 55%.

How many goals are expected in Piteå IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Piteå IF 1.01 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Piteå IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.