Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF

Team pages: Umeå FC · Hammarby TFF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Umeå FC1.03

Hammarby TFF1.75

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Umeå FC Draw Hammarby TFF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLWWL

Hammarby TFF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 2–4 Hammarby TFF (6 last)

Hammarby TFF1-2Umeå FC
Umeå FC1-2Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF1-2Umeå FC
Umeå FC0-1Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF3-2Umeå FC
Umeå FC3-4Hammarby TFF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1500 · Hammarby TFF 1485

	Umeå FC	Draw	Hammarby TFF
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	22%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hammarby TFF: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.90

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:32 +23’	4.00	3.90	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 2–0–4 Hammarby TFF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	1-2 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
21/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Hammarby TFF
12/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	1-2 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
01/10/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF
13/05/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-2 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
14/08/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-4 HT 2-0	Hammarby TFF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	24	17	3	4	57	20	54
2	AFC Eskilstuna	24	14	4	6	45	32	46
3	Hammarby TFF	24	13	6	5	50	23	45
4	FC Arlanda	24	13	6	5	42	27	45
5	FBK Karlstad	24	12	6	6	39	33	42
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	24	11	7	6	36	24	40
7	Enkopings SK	24	12	3	9	37	40	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	24	9	5	10	43	42	32
9	Gefle IF	24	9	3	12	29	42	30
10	Umeå FC	24	8	5	11	32	40	29
11	Karlbergs BK	24	8	5	11	30	39	29
12	Vasalunds IF	24	7	6	11	35	48	27
13	Sollentuna United FF	24	5	9	10	22	33	24
14	Piteå IF	24	5	6	13	29	45	21
15	FC Järfälla	24	5	3	16	32	54	18
16	IFK Stocksund	24	3	5	16	44	60	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	Hammarby TFF
FBK Karlstad	1-3 L	1-1 D
IFK Stocksund	3-0 W	2-1 W
Piteå IF	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-4 L	0-3 L
FC Arlanda	2-1 W	2-4 L
Vasalunds IF	3-2 W	0-0 D
AFC Eskilstuna	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Umeå FC

LLLDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
20/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L

Hammarby TFF

WDLDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
21/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	2-4	6	2	L
17/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
31/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
14/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
09/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
03/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby TFF win (54%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 22%, draw 24%, Hammarby TFF 54%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Umeå FC 1.03 · Hammarby TFF 1.75), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Hammarby TFF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.