Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Utsiktens BK vs Jonkopings Sodra

Team pages: Utsiktens BK · Jonkopings Sodra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Utsiktens BK0.73

Jonkopings Sodra1.69

1X2

16% 24% 60%

Utsiktens BK Draw Jonkopings Sodra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Utsiktens BK 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDLDL

Jonkopings Sodra 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWLDWW

Head-to-head

Utsiktens BK 3–1–2 Jonkopings Sodra (6 last)

Jonkopings Sodra1-2Utsiktens BK
Jonkopings Sodra0-2Utsiktens BK
Utsiktens BK2-1Jonkopings Sodra
Utsiktens BK0-1Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra5-2Utsiktens BK
Utsiktens BK2-2Jonkopings Sodra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Utsiktens BK 1439 · Jonkopings Sodra 1495

	Utsiktens BK	Draw	Jonkopings Sodra
Our model	15%	26%	59%
Market	16%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jonkopings Sodra (rating 1439 vs 1495).
H2H favours Utsiktens BK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Utsiktens BK	Jonkopings Sodra
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	1.60 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:47 +6’	4.50	3.75	1.60
22:43 +1’	5.50▲	4.00▲	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Utsiktens BK 3–1–2 Jonkopings Sodra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Jonkopings Sodra	1-2 HT 0-0	Utsiktens BK
05/08/23 Sweden Superettan	Jonkopings Sodra	0-2 HT 0-0	Utsiktens BK
23/07/23 Sweden Superettan	Utsiktens BK	2-1 HT 0-0	Jonkopings Sodra
11/09/22 Sweden Superettan	Utsiktens BK	0-1 HT 0-0	Jonkopings Sodra
14/05/22 Sweden Superettan	Jonkopings Sodra	5-2 HT 2-0	Utsiktens BK
23/08/17 Sweden Cup Qualification	Utsiktens BK	2-2 HT 1-0	Jonkopings Sodra

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	23	14	6	3	49	27	48
2	Hässleholms IF	23	13	3	7	43	27	42
3	Atvidabergs FF	23	12	6	5	46	33	42
4	Lunds BK	23	11	8	4	46	27	41
5	Ariana FC Malmo	23	9	8	6	42	34	35
6	FC Rosengård 1917	23	9	8	6	39	33	35
7	FC Trollhättan	23	9	7	7	37	34	34
8	Jonkopings Sodra	23	9	6	8	29	22	33
9	Tvååkers IF	23	9	6	8	30	33	33
10	BK Olympic	23	9	3	11	40	44	30
11	Eskilsminne IF	23	8	5	10	38	42	29
12	Skövde AIK	23	6	9	8	26	35	27
13	Kristianstad FC	23	6	6	11	28	36	24
14	Laholms FK	23	6	4	13	30	41	22
15	Angelholm	23	3	9	11	27	43	18
16	Utsiktens BK	23	1	6	16	18	57	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Utsiktens BK	Jonkopings Sodra
Ariana FC Malmo	1-3 L	0-1 L
Laholms FK	0-0 D	0-0 D
FC Rosengård 1917	1-1 D	0-0 D
Tvååkers IF	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Utsiktens BK

LDLDDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
11/09	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	0-5	6	4	L
05/09	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-2	5	0	L
22/08	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
16/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
08/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
01/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
27/06	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	1-3	1	2	L

Jonkopings Sodra

LLWDDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
16/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
06/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
29/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
22/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
02/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-3	2-4	0	3	L
27/06	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Utsiktens BK vs Jonkopings Sodra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jonkopings Sodra win (60%). Probabilities: Utsiktens BK 16%, draw 24%, Jonkopings Sodra 60%.

How many goals are expected in Utsiktens BK vs Jonkopings Sodra?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Utsiktens BK 0.73 · Jonkopings Sodra 1.69), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Utsiktens BK vs Jonkopings Sodra?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.