Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: IFK Stocksund vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: IFK Stocksund · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

IFK Stocksund1.62

FC Arlanda1.9

1X2

32% 24% 44%

IFK Stocksund Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Stocksund 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Arlanda 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

IFK Stocksund 2–1–3 FC Arlanda (6 last)

FC Arlanda1-0IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund2-1FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda5-3IFK Stocksund
FC Arlanda3-2IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund5-2FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda1-1IFK Stocksund

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Stocksund 1467 · FC Arlanda 1531

	IFK Stocksund	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1467 vs 1531).
H2H favours FC Arlanda: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Stocksund	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.99 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.92
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +13’	2.80	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +1’	3.24	4.06	1.86
14:38 +1’	2.99▼	3.92▼	1.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Stocksund 2–1–3 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	1-0 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund
03/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
23/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	5-3 HT 3-0	IFK Stocksund
01/03/25 Club Friendly List	FC Arlanda	3-2 HT 2-0	IFK Stocksund
12/10/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	IFK Stocksund	5-2 HT 3-1	FC Arlanda
23/06/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Arlanda	1-1 HT 0-1	IFK Stocksund

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	18	11	4	3	45	15	37
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	18	11	3	4	29	15	36
4	FC Arlanda	18	9	6	3	30	20	33
5	AFC Eskilstuna	18	9	4	5	31	25	31
6	Enkopings SK	18	9	2	7	27	28	29
7	FBK Karlstad	18	8	4	6	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	18	7	3	8	28	28	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	18	6	5	7	30	31	23
10	Vasalunds IF	18	6	5	7	28	35	23
11	Gefle IF	18	7	2	9	23	35	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	18	4	8	6	17	25	20
13	Umeå FC	18	4	5	9	21	30	17
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	Piteå IF	18	2	6	10	18	36	12
16	IFK Stocksund	18	2	5	11	36	44	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Stocksund	FC Arlanda
Gefle IF	5-0 W	2-3 L
FC Järfälla	6-1 W	3-2 W
Assyriska Föreningen	3-3 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Stocksund (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Stocksund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	5	2	L
15/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	6	3	W
01/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
13/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-3	7	5	D
08/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	3-1	6-1	1	7	W
31/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	3-3	8	5	D

FC Arlanda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
07/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
23/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Stocksund vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Arlanda win (44%). Probabilities: IFK Stocksund 32%, draw 24%, FC Arlanda 44%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Stocksund vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.52 goals (IFK Stocksund 1.62 · FC Arlanda 1.9), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Stocksund vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.