Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 16/09, 19:00

Prediction: Piteå IF vs Umeå FC

Team pages: Piteå IF · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Piteå IF1.34

Umeå FC1.51

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Piteå IF Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Piteå IF 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Umeå FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Piteå IF 1–1–4 Umeå FC (6 last)

Umeå FC2-0Piteå IF
Umeå FC3-0Piteå IF
Umeå FC3-0Piteå IF
Piteå IF0-0Umeå FC
Piteå IF3-0Umeå FC
Umeå FC1-0Piteå IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piteå IF 1451 · Umeå FC 1463

	Piteå IF	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Umeå FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piteå IF	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.79
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:51 +20’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +9’	2.83	3.65	2.15
14:55 +12’	2.79▼	3.63▼	2.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Piteå IF 1–1–4 Umeå FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Piteå IF
23/03/25 Club Friendly List	Umeå FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
24/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Piteå IF
31/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	0-0 HT 0-0	Umeå FC
05/10/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	3-0 HT 2-0	Umeå FC
16/06/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	21	14	3	4	48	17	45
2	Hammarby TFF	21	12	5	4	46	18	41
3	AFC Eskilstuna	21	12	4	5	36	27	40
4	IF Karlstad Fotboll	21	11	4	6	33	21	37
5	FBK Karlstad	21	11	4	6	36	32	37
6	FC Arlanda	21	10	6	5	34	25	36
7	Enkopings SK	21	11	2	8	32	34	35
8	Assyriska Föreningen	21	8	5	8	35	34	29
9	Karlbergs BK	21	8	4	9	29	31	28
10	Gefle IF	21	8	3	10	28	39	27
11	Sollentuna United FF	21	5	8	8	19	28	23
12	Vasalunds IF	21	6	5	10	33	43	23
13	Umeå FC	21	6	5	10	26	37	23
14	Piteå IF	21	3	6	12	24	41	15
15	FC Järfälla	21	4	3	14	24	47	15
16	IFK Stocksund	21	3	5	13	41	50	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piteå IF	Umeå FC
AFC Eskilstuna	0-1 L	1-3 L
Vasalunds IF	1-1 D	3-2 W
FC Arlanda	0-0 D	2-1 W
Gefle IF	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piteå IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
06/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
30/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	8	0	L
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
01/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
24/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
12/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	1	1	L

Umeå FC

WLLLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piteå IF vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Umeå FC win (41%). Probabilities: Piteå IF 33%, draw 26%, Umeå FC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Piteå IF vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Piteå IF 1.34 · Umeå FC 1.51), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Piteå IF vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.