Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 16/09, 19:30

Prediction: Gefle IF vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: Gefle IF · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Gefle IF1.57

FC Arlanda1.54

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Gefle IF Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWDLW

FC Arlanda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 1–1–1 FC Arlanda (3 last)

FC Arlanda2-3Gefle IF
FC Arlanda2-0Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-1FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1514 · FC Arlanda 1502

	Gefle IF	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.47
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.60 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +15’	2.40	3.50	2.40
15:06 +2’	2.35▼	3.50	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +39’	2.47	3.31	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 1–1–1 FC Arlanda

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	2-3 HT 0-0	Gefle IF
24/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	2-0 HT 1-0	Gefle IF
02/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	21	14	3	4	48	17	45
2	Hammarby TFF	21	12	5	4	46	18	41
3	AFC Eskilstuna	21	12	4	5	36	27	40
4	IF Karlstad Fotboll	21	11	4	6	33	21	37
5	FBK Karlstad	21	11	4	6	36	32	37
6	FC Arlanda	21	10	6	5	34	25	36
7	Enkopings SK	21	11	2	8	32	34	35
8	Assyriska Föreningen	21	8	5	8	35	34	29
9	Karlbergs BK	21	8	4	9	29	31	28
10	Gefle IF	21	8	3	10	28	39	27
11	Sollentuna United FF	21	5	8	8	19	28	23
12	Vasalunds IF	21	6	5	10	33	43	23
13	Umeå FC	21	6	5	10	26	37	23
14	Piteå IF	21	3	6	12	24	41	15
15	FC Järfälla	21	4	3	14	24	47	15
16	IFK Stocksund	21	3	5	13	41	50	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	FC Arlanda
FC Järfälla	3-1 W	3-2 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-2 D	1-0 W
Umeå FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
IFK Stocksund	0-5 L	3-2 W
Piteå IF	2-0 W	0-0 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gefle IF (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

LLWWLWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L

FC Arlanda

WWWLDLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (38%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 38%, draw 26%, FC Arlanda 36%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Gefle IF 1.57 · FC Arlanda 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.