Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs FBK Karlstad

Team pages: Gefle IF · FBK Karlstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Gefle IF1.21

FBK Karlstad1.49

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Gefle IF Draw FBK Karlstad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLLDD

FBK Karlstad 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWDLW

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 0–1 FBK Karlstad (1 last)

FBK Karlstad2-1Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1477 · FBK Karlstad 1547

	Gefle IF	Draw	FBK Karlstad
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBK Karlstad (rating 1477 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	FBK Karlstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.13 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.52
2	2.55 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:56 +36’	2.30	3.50	2.55
21:31 +17’	2.90▲	3.50	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +30’	3.03	3.47	2.11
23:41 +27’	3.02▼	3.50▲	2.11
07:03 +6’	3.13▲	3.52▲	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 0–0–1 FBK Karlstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	2-1 HT 0-1	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	27	19	4	4	64	22	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	15	5	7	52	37	50
3	Hammarby TFF	27	14	6	7	53	27	48
4	FC Arlanda	27	14	6	7	47	34	48
5	Enkopings SK	27	15	3	9	42	41	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	13	7	7	44	37	46
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	27	12	8	7	41	27	44
8	Umeå FC	27	11	5	11	39	43	38
9	Assyriska Föreningen	27	10	5	12	45	48	35
10	Karlbergs BK	27	9	6	12	37	47	33
11	Gefle IF	27	9	5	13	33	47	32
12	Sollentuna United FF	27	6	10	11	28	37	28
13	Vasalunds IF	27	7	7	13	39	59	28
14	Piteå IF	27	5	9	13	34	50	24
15	FC Järfälla	27	6	4	17	37	58	22
16	IFK Stocksund	27	3	6	18	46	67	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	FBK Karlstad
Piteå IF	3-3 D	4-3 W
Vasalunds IF	0-1 L	2-1 W
AFC Eskilstuna	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Arlanda	0-2 L	1-5 L
FC Järfälla	3-1 W	3-0 W
Sollentuna United FF	0-1 L	0-0 D
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-2 D	0-0 D
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FBK Karlstad (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

WDLWLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
11/10	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-3	2	4	D
03/10	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
16/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

FBK Karlstad

LWWWDDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	3-1	10	2	W
11/10	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
03/10	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
27/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	0	1	W
19/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
16/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	1	0	W
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs FBK Karlstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBK Karlstad win (43%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 30%, draw 27%, FBK Karlstad 43%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs FBK Karlstad?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Gefle IF 1.21 · FBK Karlstad 1.49), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs FBK Karlstad?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.