Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: Karlbergs BK vs Umeå FC

Team pages: Karlbergs BK · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Karlbergs BK1.56

Umeå FC1.49

1X2

39% 26% 36%

Karlbergs BK Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Karlbergs BK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLDWDL

Umeå FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Karlbergs BK 0–1–2 Umeå FC (3 last)

Umeå FC2-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK2-2Umeå FC
Umeå FC3-1Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlbergs BK 1450 · Umeå FC 1558

	Karlbergs BK	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	38%	26%	35%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umeå FC (rating 1450 vs 1558).
H2H favours Umeå FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlbergs BK	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +42’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +4’	2.42	3.41	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlbergs BK 0–1–2 Umeå FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Karlbergs BK
29/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	2-2 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
19/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	27	19	4	4	64	22	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	15	5	7	52	37	50
3	Hammarby TFF	27	14	6	7	53	27	48
4	FC Arlanda	27	14	6	7	47	34	48
5	Enkopings SK	27	15	3	9	42	41	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	13	7	7	44	37	46
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	27	12	8	7	41	27	44
8	Umeå FC	27	11	5	11	39	43	38
9	Assyriska Föreningen	27	10	5	12	45	48	35
10	Karlbergs BK	27	9	6	12	37	47	33
11	Gefle IF	27	9	5	13	33	47	32
12	Sollentuna United FF	27	6	10	11	28	37	28
13	Vasalunds IF	27	7	7	13	39	59	28
14	Piteå IF	27	5	9	13	34	50	24
15	FC Järfälla	27	6	4	17	37	58	22
16	IFK Stocksund	27	3	6	18	46	67	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlbergs BK	Umeå FC
FBK Karlstad	1-3 L	1-3 L
Vasalunds IF	3-3 D	3-2 W
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-2 L	0-4 L
FC Järfälla	0-5 L	2-1 W
FC Arlanda	1-0 W	2-1 W
Piteå IF	0-3 L	2-0 W
Hammarby TFF	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
10/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
02/10	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
27/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
20/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
17/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L

Umeå FC

DWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
11/10	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/10	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
27/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
20/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlbergs BK vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karlbergs BK win (39%). Probabilities: Karlbergs BK 39%, draw 26%, Umeå FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Karlbergs BK vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Karlbergs BK 1.56 · Umeå FC 1.49), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlbergs BK vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.