Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Assyriska Föreningen vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: Assyriska Föreningen · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Assyriska Föreningen1.69

FC Arlanda1.76

1X2

36% 24% 39%

Assyriska Föreningen Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Assyriska Föreningen 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Arlanda 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Assyriska Föreningen 1–1–3 FC Arlanda (5 last)

FC Arlanda2-0Assyriska Föreningen
Assyriska Föreningen1-2FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda0-0Assyriska Föreningen
Assyriska Föreningen5-1FC Arlanda
Assyriska Föreningen0-2FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Assyriska Föreningen 1473 · FC Arlanda 1514

	Assyriska Föreningen	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	36%	24%	39%
Market	36%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1473 vs 1514).
H2H favours FC Arlanda: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Assyriska Föreningen	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +50’	2.50	3.70	2.25
22:04 +3’	2.50	3.70	1.95▼
23:47 +27’	2.50	3.70	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Assyriska Föreningen 1–1–3 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	2-0 HT 1-0	Assyriska Föreningen
21/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
19/04/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	0-0 HT 0-0	Assyriska Föreningen
11/02/24 Club Friendly List	Assyriska Föreningen	5-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
04/03/23 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Assyriska Föreningen	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	27	19	4	4	64	22	61
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	15	5	7	52	37	50
3	Hammarby TFF	27	14	6	7	53	27	48
4	FC Arlanda	27	14	6	7	47	34	48
5	Enkopings SK	27	15	3	9	42	41	48
6	FBK Karlstad	27	13	7	7	44	37	46
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	27	12	8	7	41	27	44
8	Umeå FC	27	11	5	11	39	43	38
9	Assyriska Föreningen	27	10	5	12	45	48	35
10	Karlbergs BK	27	9	6	12	37	47	33
11	Gefle IF	27	9	5	13	33	47	32
12	Sollentuna United FF	27	6	10	11	28	37	28
13	Vasalunds IF	27	7	7	13	39	59	28
14	Piteå IF	27	5	9	13	34	50	24
15	FC Järfälla	27	6	4	17	37	58	22
16	IFK Stocksund	27	3	6	18	46	67	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Assyriska Föreningen	FC Arlanda
Umeå FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
FBK Karlstad	1-0 W	5-1 W
Vasalunds IF	5-1 W	4-1 W
Enkopings SK	1-2 L	2-0 W
IFK Stocksund	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Järfälla	2-0 W	1-3 L
Gefle IF	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arlanda (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Assyriska Föreningen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	1-3	7	3	L
11/10	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	6	6	L
27/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
21/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	5-1	3	4	W
17/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-5	7	4	L
10/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
04/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	3	4	L

FC Arlanda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
10/10	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
04/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
27/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-2	1	2	W
16/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Assyriska Föreningen vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Arlanda win (39%). Probabilities: Assyriska Föreningen 36%, draw 24%, FC Arlanda 39%.

How many goals are expected in Assyriska Föreningen vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Assyriska Föreningen 1.69 · FC Arlanda 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Assyriska Föreningen vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.