Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ahlafors IF vs Motala AIF FK

Team pages: Ahlafors IF · Motala AIF FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Ahlafors IF2.07

Motala AIF FK1.41

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Ahlafors IF Draw Motala AIF FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ahlafors IF 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLWLW

Motala AIF FK 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Ahlafors IF 1–2–3 Motala AIF FK (6 last)

Motala AIF FK3-2Ahlafors IF
Motala AIF FK3-2Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF3-3Motala AIF FK
Motala AIF FK1-1Ahlafors IF
Motala AIF FK5-0Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF6-0Motala AIF FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ahlafors IF 1529 · Motala AIF FK 1479

	Ahlafors IF	Draw	Motala AIF FK
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ahlafors IF (rating 1529 vs 1479).
H2H favours Motala AIF FK: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ahlafors IF	Motala AIF FK
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +4’	1.75	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +89’	1.74	3.75	3.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ahlafors IF 1–2–3 Motala AIF FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Motala AIF FK	3-2 HT 1-1	Ahlafors IF
26/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Motala AIF FK	3-2 HT 1-1	Ahlafors IF
28/06/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	3-3 HT 1-2	Motala AIF FK
11/05/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Motala AIF FK	1-1 HT 1-1	Ahlafors IF
24/08/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Motala AIF FK	5-0 HT 3-0	Ahlafors IF
27/04/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	6-0 HT 4-0	Motala AIF FK

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	24	20	3	1	58	18	63
2	Skara	24	16	5	3	51	26	53
3	IFK Skövde FK	24	14	5	5	42	25	47
4	Ahlafors IF	23	11	7	5	49	26	40
5	Grebbestads IF	23	12	3	8	42	33	39
6	Herrestads AIF	23	9	7	7	41	42	34
7	Stenungsunds IF	24	9	6	9	43	33	33
8	Vanersborgs FK	24	8	4	12	30	40	28
9	Lidköpings FK	24	7	6	11	29	42	27
10	Motala AIF FK	23	6	8	9	33	32	26
11	IFK Kumla	24	6	7	11	23	42	25
12	IK Tord	23	3	9	11	26	42	18
13	IF Karlstad II	23	2	7	14	23	44	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	2	3	19	24	69	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ahlafors IF	Motala AIF FK
Vänersborgs IF	2-1 W	3-3 D
Husqvarna FF	2-0 W	0-1 L
Vanersborgs FK	0-1 L	0-1 L
IFK Kumla	7-1 W	0-0 D
Grebbestads IF	3-1 W	1-3 L
IF Karlstad II	2-0 W	2-2 D
IFK Skövde FK	0-0 D	2-3 L
IK Tord	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ahlafors IF (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ahlafors IF

DDWWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/09	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
04/09	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/08	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	7-1	5	4	W
21/08	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	2-2	13	2	D
14/08	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	3-1	7	6	W
08/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/07	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
27/06	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	4	D

Motala AIF FK

LDLDDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
11/09	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/09	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-3	2-3	5	0	L
23/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-2	6	8	D
15/08	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
01/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
27/06	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ahlafors IF vs Motala AIF FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ahlafors IF win (52%). Probabilities: Ahlafors IF 52%, draw 23%, Motala AIF FK 25%.

How many goals are expected in Ahlafors IF vs Motala AIF FK?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Ahlafors IF 2.07 · Motala AIF FK 1.41), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ahlafors IF vs Motala AIF FK?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.