Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Ahlafors IF vs Stenungsunds IF

Team pages: Ahlafors IF · Stenungsunds IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Ahlafors IF2.27

Stenungsunds IF1.16

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Ahlafors IF Draw Stenungsunds IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ahlafors IF 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWLWW

Stenungsunds IF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Ahlafors IF 4–2–0 Stenungsunds IF (6 last)

Stenungsunds IF0-4Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF1-1Stenungsunds IF
Stenungsunds IF0-0Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF3-2Stenungsunds IF
Stenungsunds IF1-2Ahlafors IF
Stenungsunds IF1-2Ahlafors IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ahlafors IF 1567 · Stenungsunds IF 1498

	Ahlafors IF	Draw	Stenungsunds IF
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ahlafors IF (rating 1567 vs 1498).
H2H favours Ahlafors IF: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ahlafors IF	Stenungsunds IF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.8	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +31’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ahlafors IF 4–2–0 Stenungsunds IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	0-4 HT 0-3	Ahlafors IF
16/08/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	1-1 HT 0-1	Stenungsunds IF
20/04/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	0-0 HT 0-0	Ahlafors IF
01/10/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	3-2 HT 0-2	Stenungsunds IF
17/06/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	1-2 HT 0-0	Ahlafors IF
25/08/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	1-2 HT 0-0	Ahlafors IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	24	20	3	1	58	18	63
2	Skara	24	16	5	3	51	26	53
3	IFK Skövde FK	24	14	5	5	42	25	47
4	Ahlafors IF	24	12	7	5	55	28	43
5	Grebbestads IF	24	12	3	9	43	36	39
6	Herrestads AIF	24	10	7	7	44	43	37
7	Stenungsunds IF	24	9	6	9	43	33	33
8	Vanersborgs FK	25	8	5	12	33	43	29
9	Lidköpings FK	24	7	6	11	29	42	27
10	Motala AIF FK	24	6	8	10	35	38	26
11	IFK Kumla	25	6	8	11	26	45	26
12	IK Tord	24	4	9	11	29	43	21
13	IF Karlstad II	24	2	7	15	24	47	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	2	3	19	24	69	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ahlafors IF	Stenungsunds IF
Motala AIF FK	6-2 W	2-2 D
Skara	0-1 L	1-1 D
Vanersborgs FK	0-1 L	0-1 L
IFK Kumla	7-1 W	5-0 W
Lidköpings FK	2-2 D	2-1 W
Grebbestads IF	3-1 W	1-1 D
IF Karlstad II	2-0 W	2-0 W
IFK Skövde FK	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ahlafors IF (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ahlafors IF

DWWDWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	4-1	6-2	4	3	W
25/09	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/09	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
04/09	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/08	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	7-1	5	4	W
21/08	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	2-2	13	2	D
14/08	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	3-1	7	6	W
08/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/07	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Stenungsunds IF

DWWDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
27/09	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	4-0	5-1	0	4	W
20/09	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/09	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
28/08	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
22/08	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	5-0	9	1	W
08/08	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
31/07	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ahlafors IF vs Stenungsunds IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ahlafors IF win (62%). Probabilities: Ahlafors IF 62%, draw 20%, Stenungsunds IF 18%.

How many goals are expected in Ahlafors IF vs Stenungsunds IF?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Ahlafors IF 2.27 · Stenungsunds IF 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ahlafors IF vs Stenungsunds IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.