Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lidköpings FK vs Vanersborgs FK

Team pages: Lidköpings FK · Vanersborgs FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Lidköpings FK1.66

Vanersborgs FK1.18

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Lidköpings FK Draw Vanersborgs FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lidköpings FK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDWWWL

Vanersborgs FK 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWLL

Head-to-head

Lidköpings FK 2–2–2 Vanersborgs FK (6 last)

Vanersborgs FK2-1Lidköpings FK
Vanersborgs FK1-1Lidköpings FK
Lidköpings FK0-0Vanersborgs FK
Lidköpings FK3-0Vanersborgs FK
Vanersborgs FK3-1Lidköpings FK
Lidköpings FK1-0Vanersborgs FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lidköpings FK 1518 · Vanersborgs FK 1490

	Lidköpings FK	Draw	Vanersborgs FK
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	49%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lidköpings FK	Vanersborgs FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	1.8 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.37 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +44’	1.83	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +55’	1.85	3.45	3.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lidköpings FK 2–2–2 Vanersborgs FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	2-1 HT 0-0	Lidköpings FK
27/06/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	1-1 HT 0-1	Lidköpings FK
25/04/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	0-0 HT 0-0	Vanersborgs FK
20/10/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	3-0 HT 1-0	Vanersborgs FK
07/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	3-1 HT 1-0	Lidköpings FK
06/08/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Vanersborgs FK

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	23	19	3	1	54	18	60
2	Skara	23	15	5	3	48	25	50
3	IFK Skövde FK	23	13	5	5	39	25	44
4	Ahlafors IF	23	11	7	5	49	26	40
5	Grebbestads IF	23	12	3	8	42	33	39
6	Herrestads AIF	23	9	7	7	41	42	34
7	Stenungsunds IF	23	9	6	8	43	30	33
8	Vanersborgs FK	23	8	4	11	30	39	28
9	Motala AIF FK	23	6	8	9	33	32	26
10	IFK Kumla	23	6	7	10	22	39	25
11	Lidköpings FK	23	6	6	11	28	42	24
12	IK Tord	23	3	9	11	26	42	18
13	IF Karlstad II	23	2	7	14	23	44	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	23	2	3	18	24	65	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lidköpings FK	Vanersborgs FK
Vänersborgs IF	5-2 W	2-0 W
Herrestads AIF	2-1 W	2-4 L
Skara	1-1 D	0-4 L
Ahlafors IF	2-2 D	1-0 W
IF Karlstad II	0-0 D	3-1 W
Stenungsunds IF	1-2 L	1-0 W
Husqvarna FF	0-0 D	1-3 L
IFK Skövde FK	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lidköpings FK (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lidköpings FK

WDLDDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	4-1	5-2	2	4	W
13/09	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
29/08	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
21/08	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-2	1	2	D
16/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
08/08	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
01/07	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
25/06	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Vanersborgs FK

WLLWLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
19/09	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/09	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
07/08	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
31/07	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-3	2-4	3	2	L
27/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lidköpings FK vs Vanersborgs FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lidköpings FK win (48%). Probabilities: Lidköpings FK 48%, draw 25%, Vanersborgs FK 27%.

How many goals are expected in Lidköpings FK vs Vanersborgs FK?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Lidköpings FK 1.66 · Vanersborgs FK 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lidköpings FK vs Vanersborgs FK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.