Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 25/09, 19:15
Prediction: Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors IF
Team pages: Vänersborgs IF · Ahlafors IF
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Vänersborgs IF1.1
Ahlafors IF2.07
1X2
Vänersborgs IF
Draw
Ahlafors IF
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Vänersborgs IF
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Ahlafors IF
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vänersborgs IF
1–1–4
Ahlafors IF
(6 last)
- Ahlafors IF3-0Vänersborgs IF
- Vänersborgs IF2-3Ahlafors IF
- Ahlafors IF2-2Vänersborgs IF
- Ahlafors IF2-0Vänersborgs IF
- Vänersborgs IF3-1Ahlafors IF
- Vänersborgs IF1-2Ahlafors IF
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vänersborgs IF 1400 · Ahlafors IF 1537
| Vänersborgs IF | Draw | Ahlafors IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 20% | 20% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ahlafors IF (rating 1400 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Ahlafors IF: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vänersborgs IF | Ahlafors IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.7 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vänersborgs IF 1–1–4 Ahlafors IF
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Ahlafors IF | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 03/08/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Vänersborgs IF | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Ahlafors IF |
| 03/05/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Ahlafors IF | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 12/10/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Ahlafors IF | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 16/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Vänersborgs IF | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Ahlafors IF |
| 22/09/23 Sweden 1.div Södra | Vänersborgs IF | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Ahlafors IF |
Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna FF | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 51 | 17 | 57 |
| 2 | Skara | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 22 | 50 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde FK | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 41 |
| 4 | Ahlafors IF | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 25 | 37 |
| 5 | Grebbestads IF | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | Herrestads AIF | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 38 | 34 |
| 7 | Stenungsunds IF | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 29 | 30 |
| 8 | Vanersborgs FK | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 36 | 28 |
| 9 | Lidköpings FK | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 41 | 24 |
| 10 | Motala AIF FK | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 32 | 23 |
| 11 | IFK Kumla | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 39 | 22 |
| 12 | IK Tord | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 37 | 18 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 43 | 13 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 63 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vänersborgs IF | Ahlafors IF |
|---|---|---|
| Lidköpings FK | 2-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Grebbestads IF | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Skara | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| IK Tord | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Vanersborgs FK | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| IFK Kumla | 1-2 L | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ahlafors IF (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vänersborgs IF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-4 | 2-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 26/06 | Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
3-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
Ahlafors IF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 04/09 | Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
3-1 | 7-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 14/08 | Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors IF?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ahlafors IF win (59%). Probabilities: Vänersborgs IF 19%, draw 21%, Ahlafors IF 59%.
How many goals are expected in Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors IF?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Vänersborgs IF 1.1 · Ahlafors IF 2.07), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors IF?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.