Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 27/09, 13:00

Prediction: Eskilsminne IF vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Eskilsminne IF · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Eskilsminne IF1.46

Ariana FC Malmo1.9

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Eskilsminne IF Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Eskilsminne IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLLWD

Ariana FC Malmo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Eskilsminne IF 2–1–3 Ariana FC Malmo (6 last)

Ariana FC Malmo2-1Eskilsminne IF
Ariana FC Malmo3-0Eskilsminne IF
Eskilsminne IF2-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-1Eskilsminne IF
Eskilsminne IF2-0Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo2-1Eskilsminne IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eskilsminne IF 1484 · Ariana FC Malmo 1492

	Eskilsminne IF	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ariana FC Malmo: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eskilsminne IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:03 +4’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Eskilsminne IF 2–1–3 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	2-1 HT 1-0	Eskilsminne IF
09/08/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-0 HT 1-0	Eskilsminne IF
17/05/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Eskilsminne IF	2-2 HT 1-2	Ariana FC Malmo
20/09/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-1	Eskilsminne IF
20/06/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Eskilsminne IF	2-0 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
09/09/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	2-1 HT 1-1	Eskilsminne IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	23	14	6	3	49	27	48
2	Hässleholms IF	23	13	3	7	43	27	42
3	Atvidabergs FF	23	12	6	5	46	33	42
4	Lunds BK	23	11	8	4	46	27	41
5	Ariana FC Malmo	23	9	8	6	42	34	35
6	FC Rosengård 1917	23	9	8	6	39	33	35
7	FC Trollhättan	23	9	7	7	37	34	34
8	Jonkopings Sodra	23	9	6	8	29	22	33
9	Tvååkers IF	23	9	6	8	30	33	33
10	BK Olympic	23	9	3	11	40	44	30
11	Eskilsminne IF	23	8	5	10	38	42	29
12	Skövde AIK	23	6	9	8	26	35	27
13	Kristianstad FC	23	6	6	11	28	36	24
14	Laholms FK	23	6	4	13	30	41	22
15	Angelholm	23	3	9	11	27	43	18
16	Utsiktens BK	23	1	6	16	18	57	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eskilsminne IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Angelholm	2-2 D	2-2 D
Tvååkers IF	4-2 W	0-0 D
Laholms FK	0-1 L	2-2 D
Hässleholms IF	0-2 L	0-2 L
Utsiktens BK	2-2 D	3-1 W
Trelleborgs FF	3-1 W	1-2 L
BK Olympic	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eskilsminne IF

LWDWDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
17/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	4-1	4-2	4	6	W
12/09	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
05/09	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-4	2-4	1	2	L
29/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
22/08	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
16/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
08/08	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/07	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	3-2	5	5	W
28/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

Ariana FC Malmo

WDLDLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eskilsminne IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ariana FC Malmo win (47%). Probabilities: Eskilsminne IF 29%, draw 24%, Ariana FC Malmo 47%.

How many goals are expected in Eskilsminne IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Eskilsminne IF 1.46 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.9), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Eskilsminne IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.