Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: IFK Berga vs Lilla Torg FF

Team pages: IFK Berga · Lilla Torg FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

IFK Berga2.17

Lilla Torg FF1.28

1X2

56% 23% 21%

IFK Berga Draw Lilla Torg FF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Berga 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWDL

Lilla Torg FF 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLDLLW

Head-to-head

IFK Berga 0–1 Lilla Torg FF (1 last)

Lilla Torg FF2-1IFK Berga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Berga 1535 · Lilla Torg FF 1484

	IFK Berga	Draw	Lilla Torg FF
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Berga (rating 1535 vs 1484).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Berga	Lilla Torg FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:48 +18’	1.60	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Berga 0–0–1 Lilla Torg FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Lilla Torg FF	2-1 HT 0-0	IFK Berga

Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland · Sodra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Karlskrona	19	14	3	2	51	19	45
2	Oskarshamns AIK	19	12	3	4	47	21	39
3	IFK Trelleborg	19	11	5	3	36	16	38
4	IFK Berga	19	9	4	6	39	28	31
5	Linero IF	19	10	1	8	35	33	31
6	Nosaby	19	8	5	6	36	33	29
7	Växjö Norra	19	8	5	6	26	28	29
8	Osterlen FF	19	7	4	8	25	29	25
9	Sölvesborgs GoIF	19	7	1	11	28	32	22
10	Lilla Torg FF	19	5	7	7	22	31	22
11	Staffanstorp United	19	4	7	8	29	34	19
12	Torns IF	19	6	0	13	26	53	18
13	Räppe GOIF	19	3	5	11	19	39	14
14	IFK Karlshamn	19	3	2	14	21	44	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Berga	Lilla Torg FF
FK Karlskrona	1-4 L	1-4 L
Staffanstorp United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Torns IF	4-3 W	4-0 W
Räppe GOIF	3-0 W	3-1 W
IFK Trelleborg	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Berga (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Berga

WLWLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Karlskrona Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	1-4	1	0	L
22/08	Staffanstorp United Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Torns IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-2	4-3	3	3	W
07/08	Räppe GOIF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
02/08	IFK Trelleborg Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/06	Växjö Norra Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	2-1	3-1	7	7	W
17/06	IFK Trelleborg Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
13/06	Torns IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	4-0	4-1	7	4	W
06/06	Linero IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
29/05	Sölvesborgs GoIF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	2-0	3-2	5	3	W

Lilla Torg FF

DLDDWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Räppe GOIF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
23/08	IFK Trelleborg Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
15/08	FK Karlskrona Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-4	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Staffanstorp United Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Oskarshamns AIK Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
24/06	Torns IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	4-0	7	0	W
17/06	Nosaby Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	3-3	4	9	D
12/06	Staffanstorp United Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
07/06	IFK Karlshamn Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
31/05	FK Karlskrona Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Berga vs Lilla Torg FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Berga win (56%). Probabilities: IFK Berga 56%, draw 23%, Lilla Torg FF 21%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Berga vs Lilla Torg FF?

The model expects 3.45 goals (IFK Berga 2.17 · Lilla Torg FF 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Berga vs Lilla Torg FF?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.