Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 15/08, 14:00

Prediction: Stenungsunds IF vs IFK Kumla

Team pages: Stenungsunds IF · IFK Kumla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Stenungsunds IF1.56

IFK Kumla1.26

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Stenungsunds IF Draw IFK Kumla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Stenungsunds IF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLWLDW

IFK Kumla 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Stenungsunds IF 1–3–2 IFK Kumla (6 last)

IFK Kumla1-1Stenungsunds IF
Stenungsunds IF1-1IFK Kumla
IFK Kumla4-1Stenungsunds IF
Stenungsunds IF1-1IFK Kumla
IFK Kumla1-0Stenungsunds IF
Stenungsunds IF3-1IFK Kumla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stenungsunds IF 1504 · IFK Kumla 1462

	Stenungsunds IF	Draw	IFK Kumla
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stenungsunds IF (rating 1504 vs 1462).
H2H favours IFK Kumla: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stenungsunds IF	IFK Kumla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.4	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +6’	2.00	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stenungsunds IF 1–3–2 IFK Kumla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	1-1 HT 0-1	Stenungsunds IF
21/09/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	1-1 HT 0-1	IFK Kumla
01/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	4-1 HT 2-0	Stenungsunds IF
26/06/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	1-1 HT 1-1	IFK Kumla
03/04/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Kumla	1-0 HT 1-0	Stenungsunds IF
28/11/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Stenungsunds IF	3-1 HT 2-1	IFK Kumla

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	16	13	3	0	37	10	42
2	Skara	16	11	4	1	34	18	37
3	IFK Skövde FK	16	9	3	4	31	20	30
4	Grebbestads IF	16	9	2	5	30	22	29
5	Ahlafors IF	16	7	6	3	33	19	27
6	Herrestads AIF	16	6	5	5	30	31	23
7	Stenungsunds IF	16	6	4	6	28	24	22
8	IFK Kumla	16	5	5	6	17	19	20
9	Motala AIF FK	16	5	4	7	21	21	19
10	Vanersborgs FK	16	4	4	8	21	32	16
11	Lidköpings FK	16	3	3	10	17	35	12
12	IK Tord	16	1	8	7	19	29	11
13	IF Karlstad II	16	2	4	10	17	30	10
14	Vänersborgs IF	16	2	3	11	20	45	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stenungsunds IF	IFK Kumla
Skara	1-1 D	0-2 L
Vänersborgs IF	0-1 L	2-1 W
Ahlafors IF	0-4 L	1-1 D
Motala AIF FK	1-1 D	0-0 D
Herrestads AIF	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Kumla (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stenungsunds IF

LDWLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
31/07	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/06	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
18/06	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-1	4-2	2	5	W
12/06	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-3	0-4	3	3	L
04/06	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	5-0	7	1	W
31/05	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
23/05	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
17/05	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
08/05	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-4	1-4	3	4	L

IFK Kumla

DLLLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/07	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
24/06	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
18/06	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
11/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
07/06	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
30/05	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	1-2	10	2	L
22/05	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
14/05	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
08/05	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stenungsunds IF vs IFK Kumla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stenungsunds IF win (44%). Probabilities: Stenungsunds IF 44%, draw 26%, IFK Kumla 30%.

How many goals are expected in Stenungsunds IF vs IFK Kumla?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Stenungsunds IF 1.56 · IFK Kumla 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stenungsunds IF vs IFK Kumla?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.