Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 21/08, 18:30

Prediction: Lidköpings FK vs Ahlafors IF

Team pages: Lidköpings FK · Ahlafors IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Lidköpings FK1.25

Ahlafors IF1.99

1X2

23% 23% 54%

Lidköpings FK Draw Ahlafors IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lidköpings FK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWDLD

Ahlafors IF 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Lidköpings FK 4–2–0 Ahlafors IF (6 last)

Ahlafors IF2-2Lidköpings FK
Lidköpings FK4-1Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF0-0Lidköpings FK
Lidköpings FK3-2Ahlafors IF
Ahlafors IF3-4Lidköpings FK
Lidköpings FK1-0Ahlafors IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lidköpings FK 1468 · Ahlafors IF 1573

	Lidköpings FK	Draw	Ahlafors IF
Our model	23%	24%	54%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ahlafors IF (rating 1468 vs 1573).
H2H favours Lidköpings FK: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lidköpings FK	Ahlafors IF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	2.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.10

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +8’	3.80	4.10	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lidköpings FK 4–2–0 Ahlafors IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	2-2 HT 1-2	Lidköpings FK
30/08/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	4-1 HT 3-1	Ahlafors IF
29/03/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	0-0 HT 0-0	Lidköpings FK
02/08/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	3-2 HT 1-1	Ahlafors IF
29/03/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Ahlafors IF	3-4 HT 0-1	Lidköpings FK
08/10/22 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Lidköpings FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Ahlafors IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	17	14	3	0	38	10	45
2	Skara	17	11	4	2	34	19	37
3	IFK Skövde FK	17	9	4	4	33	22	31
4	Ahlafors IF	17	8	6	3	36	20	30
5	Grebbestads IF	17	9	2	6	31	25	29
6	Stenungsunds IF	17	7	4	6	33	24	25
7	Herrestads AIF	17	6	6	5	32	33	24
8	Motala AIF FK	17	5	5	7	22	22	20
9	IFK Kumla	17	5	5	7	17	24	20
10	Vanersborgs FK	17	5	4	8	23	32	19
11	Lidköpings FK	17	3	4	10	17	35	13
12	IK Tord	17	1	9	7	20	30	12
13	IF Karlstad II	17	2	5	10	17	30	11
14	Vänersborgs IF	17	2	3	12	20	47	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lidköpings FK	Ahlafors IF
IF Karlstad II	0-0 D	2-0 W
Stenungsunds IF	1-2 L	4-0 W
IFK Skövde FK	2-1 W	0-0 D
Skara	2-4 L	1-1 D
IK Tord	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ahlafors IF (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lidköpings FK

LLWLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
08/08	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
01/07	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
25/06	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
18/06	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-2	2-4	7	0	L
10/06	Skövde AIK Sweden Cup	2-1	2-3	2	1	L
06/06	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/05	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
23/05	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-3	0-6	–	–	L

Ahlafors IF

WWWDWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	3-1	7	6	W
08/08	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/07	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
27/06	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
18/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
12/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
07/06	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/05	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
13/05	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
09/05	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lidköpings FK vs Ahlafors IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ahlafors IF win (54%). Probabilities: Lidköpings FK 23%, draw 23%, Ahlafors IF 54%.

How many goals are expected in Lidköpings FK vs Ahlafors IF?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Lidköpings FK 1.25 · Ahlafors IF 1.99), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lidköpings FK vs Ahlafors IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.