Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 21/08, 19:00

Prediction: Herrestads AIF vs Vänersborgs IF

Team pages: Herrestads AIF · Vänersborgs IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Herrestads AIF2.53

Vänersborgs IF1.32

1X2

63% 19% 18%

Herrestads AIF Draw Vänersborgs IF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Herrestads AIF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLLWWD

Vänersborgs IF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWDLL

Head-to-head

Herrestads AIF 3–2–1 Vänersborgs IF (6 last)

Vänersborgs IF2-2Herrestads AIF
Vänersborgs IF2-1Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF3-3Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF2-4Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF1-0Vänersborgs IF
Herrestads AIF4-1Vänersborgs IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrestads AIF 1505 · Vänersborgs IF 1424

	Herrestads AIF	Draw	Vänersborgs IF
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herrestads AIF (rating 1505 vs 1424).
H2H favours Herrestads AIF: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrestads AIF	Vänersborgs IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.2 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +41’	1.42	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrestads AIF 3–2–1 Vänersborgs IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vänersborgs IF	2-2 HT 1-1	Herrestads AIF
12/10/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vänersborgs IF	2-1 HT 2-1	Herrestads AIF
29/03/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	3-3 HT 1-1	Vänersborgs IF
31/08/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vänersborgs IF	2-4 HT 0-3	Herrestads AIF
25/06/24 Sweden Cup	Herrestads AIF	1-0 HT 1-0	Vänersborgs IF
03/05/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	4-1 HT 2-0	Vänersborgs IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	17	14	3	0	38	10	45
2	Skara	17	11	4	2	34	19	37
3	IFK Skövde FK	17	9	4	4	33	22	31
4	Ahlafors IF	17	8	6	3	36	20	30
5	Grebbestads IF	17	9	2	6	31	25	29
6	Stenungsunds IF	17	7	4	6	33	24	25
7	Herrestads AIF	17	6	6	5	32	33	24
8	Motala AIF FK	17	5	5	7	22	22	20
9	IFK Kumla	17	5	5	7	17	24	20
10	Vanersborgs FK	17	5	4	8	23	32	19
11	Lidköpings FK	17	3	4	10	17	35	13
12	IK Tord	17	1	9	7	20	30	12
13	IF Karlstad II	17	2	5	10	17	30	11
14	Vänersborgs IF	17	2	3	12	20	47	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrestads AIF	Vänersborgs IF
IFK Skövde FK	2-2 D	2-6 L
Vanersborgs FK	4-2 W	0-2 L
Motala AIF FK	1-0 W	3-3 D
IFK Kumla	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Herrestads AIF (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrestads AIF

LDWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	3-2	3	0	W
31/07	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	4-2	7	2	W
26/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/06	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	0	L
15/06	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
30/05	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
22/05	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/05	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-5	5	2	L

Vänersborgs IF

LLLLDLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
08/08	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-1	3-3	–	–	D
26/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
18/06	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/06	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
04/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
31/05	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
22/05	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-4	0-4	4	1	L
15/05	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-1	2-6	10	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrestads AIF vs Vänersborgs IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herrestads AIF win (63%). Probabilities: Herrestads AIF 63%, draw 19%, Vänersborgs IF 18%.

How many goals are expected in Herrestads AIF vs Vänersborgs IF?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Herrestads AIF 2.53 · Vänersborgs IF 1.32), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrestads AIF vs Vänersborgs IF?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.