Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 21/08, 19:15

Prediction: Vanersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde FK

Team pages: Vanersborgs FK · IFK Skövde FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Vanersborgs FK1.17

IFK Skövde FK1.81

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Vanersborgs FK Draw IFK Skövde FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vanersborgs FK 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLLLW

IFK Skövde FK 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDDDD

Head-to-head

Vanersborgs FK 0–6 IFK Skövde FK (6 last)

IFK Skövde FK1-0Vanersborgs FK
IFK Skövde FK5-1Vanersborgs FK
Vanersborgs FK1-2IFK Skövde FK
IFK Skövde FK2-0Vanersborgs FK
Vanersborgs FK2-3IFK Skövde FK
IFK Skövde FK6-0Vanersborgs FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vanersborgs FK 1435 · IFK Skövde FK 1519

	Vanersborgs FK	Draw	IFK Skövde FK
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Skövde FK (rating 1435 vs 1519).
H2H favours IFK Skövde FK: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vanersborgs FK	IFK Skövde FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +4’	3.60	3.90	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vanersborgs FK 0–0–6 IFK Skövde FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Skövde FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Vanersborgs FK
14/09/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Skövde FK	5-1 HT 4-0	Vanersborgs FK
17/05/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	1-2 HT 1-0	IFK Skövde FK
09/09/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Skövde FK	2-0 HT 1-0	Vanersborgs FK
05/05/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	2-3 HT 2-3	IFK Skövde FK
15/09/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	IFK Skövde FK	6-0 HT 3-0	Vanersborgs FK

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	17	14	3	0	38	10	45
2	Skara	17	11	4	2	34	19	37
3	IFK Skövde FK	17	9	4	4	33	22	31
4	Ahlafors IF	17	8	6	3	36	20	30
5	Grebbestads IF	17	9	2	6	31	25	29
6	Stenungsunds IF	17	7	4	6	33	24	25
7	Herrestads AIF	17	6	6	5	32	33	24
8	Motala AIF FK	17	5	5	7	22	22	20
9	IFK Kumla	17	5	5	7	17	24	20
10	Vanersborgs FK	17	5	4	8	23	32	19
11	Lidköpings FK	17	3	4	10	17	35	13
12	IK Tord	17	1	9	7	20	30	12
13	IF Karlstad II	17	2	5	10	17	30	11
14	Vänersborgs IF	17	2	3	12	20	47	9

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vanersborgs FK	IFK Skövde FK
Skara	0-4 L	0-1 L
Herrestads AIF	2-4 L	2-2 D
Grebbestads IF	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Skövde FK (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vanersborgs FK

DLLLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
07/08	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
31/07	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-3	2-4	3	2	L
24/07	IK Kongahälla Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
27/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-2	2-4	4	5	L
14/06	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-3	4	0	L
05/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
29/05	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-3	4	2	L
22/05	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

IFK Skövde FK

LWLWLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Cup Qualification	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
08/08	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
31/07	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
27/07	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden Cup Qualification	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
25/06	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
18/06	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
12/06	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-4	9	3	L
07/06	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
29/05	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	0-1	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vanersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IFK Skövde FK win (52%). Probabilities: Vanersborgs FK 24%, draw 24%, IFK Skövde FK 52%.

How many goals are expected in Vanersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde FK?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Vanersborgs FK 1.17 · IFK Skövde FK 1.81), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vanersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde FK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.