Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 16/07, 21:15
Prediction: Afturelding vs Leiknir Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
Afturelding2.53
Leiknir Reykjavik1.01
1X2
Afturelding
Draw
Leiknir Reykjavik
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Afturelding
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Leiknir Reykjavik
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Afturelding
4–2–0
Leiknir Reykjavik
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Afturelding 1591 · Leiknir Reykjavik 1499
| Afturelding | Draw | Leiknir Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afturelding (rating 1591 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Afturelding: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Afturelding | Leiknir Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.3 | 3.1 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.6 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Afturelding 4–2–0 Leiknir Reykjavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild | Leiknir Reykjavik | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Afturelding |
| 08/08/24 Iceland 1 Deild | Afturelding | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Leiknir Reykjavik |
| 31/05/24 Iceland 1 Deild | Leiknir Reykjavik | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Afturelding |
| 13/04/24 Iceland Cup | Leiknir Reykjavik | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Afturelding |
| 23/02/24 Iceland League Cup | Afturelding | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Leiknir Reykjavik |
| 24/09/23 Iceland 1 Deild | Afturelding | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Leiknir Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland 1 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Fylkir Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | HK Kopavogur | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 25 |
| 4 | Throttur Reykjavik | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | IF Vestri | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Njardvik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Leiknir Reykjavik | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 8 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 19 |
| 9 | Grindavik | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 10 | IR Reykjavik | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 36 | 12 |
| 11 | Volsungur | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 8 |
| 12 | KF Aegir | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Afturelding | Leiknir Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Volsungur | 6-1 W | 3-3 D |
| IR Reykjavik | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| KF Aegir | 8-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Njardvik | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| IF Vestri | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| HK Kopavogur | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Fylkir Reykjavik | 5-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Grindavik | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Throttur Reykjavik | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Afturelding (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Afturelding
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
4-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 03/07 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/06 | KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild |
2-1 | 8-1 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Cup |
0-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 05/06 | HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
3-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 8 | W |
Leiknir Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 26/06 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-1 | 2-1 | 16 | 9 | W |
| 19/06 | Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 27/05 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 18/05 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Afturelding vs Leiknir Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Afturelding win (70%). Probabilities: Afturelding 70%, draw 18%, Leiknir Reykjavik 13%.
How many goals are expected in Afturelding vs Leiknir Reykjavik?
The model expects 3.55 goals (Afturelding 2.53 · Leiknir Reykjavik 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Afturelding vs Leiknir Reykjavik?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.