Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 20/07, 21:15
Prediction: HK Kopavogur vs IF Vestri
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
HK Kopavogur2.49
IF Vestri1.64
1X2
HK Kopavogur
Draw
IF Vestri
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
HK Kopavogur
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
IF Vestri
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HK Kopavogur
2–2–2
IF Vestri
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HK Kopavogur 1533 · IF Vestri 1460
| HK Kopavogur | Draw | IF Vestri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HK Kopavogur (rating 1533 vs 1460).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HK Kopavogur | IF Vestri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.9 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HK Kopavogur 2–2–2 IF Vestri
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild | IF Vestri | 4-3 HT 2-1 | HK Kopavogur |
| 18/02/26 Iceland League Cup | HK Kopavogur | 3-2 HT 1-1 | IF Vestri |
| 31/01/26 Iceland League Cup | HK Kopavogur | 4-2 HT 2-1 | IF Vestri |
| 18/04/25 Iceland Cup | IF Vestri | 3-3 HT 2-1 | HK Kopavogur |
| 29/09/24 Iceland Premier League | IF Vestri | 2-1 HT 0-0 | HK Kopavogur |
| 20/07/24 Iceland Premier League | HK Kopavogur | 1-1 HT 1-1 | IF Vestri |
Standings · Iceland 1 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Fylkir Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | HK Kopavogur | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 25 |
| 4 | Throttur Reykjavik | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | IF Vestri | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Njardvik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Leiknir Reykjavik | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 19 |
| 9 | Grindavik | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 10 | IR Reykjavik | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 36 | 12 |
| 11 | Volsungur | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 8 |
| 12 | KF Aegir | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HK Kopavogur | IF Vestri |
|---|---|---|
| IR Reykjavik | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| KF Aegir | 4-3 W | 3-2 W |
| Fylkir Reykjavik | 2-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Grindavik | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Throttur Reykjavik | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Afturelding | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Leiknir Reykjavik | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Volsungur | 1-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: IF Vestri (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HK Kopavogur
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
4-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild |
4-3 | 4-3 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/07 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/06 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 12/06 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/06 | Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-3 | 1-4 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 27/05 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
IF Vestri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/07 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-5 | 2-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/06 | KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HK Kopavogur vs IF Vestri?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HK Kopavogur win (55%). Probabilities: HK Kopavogur 55%, draw 21%, IF Vestri 24%.
How many goals are expected in HK Kopavogur vs IF Vestri?
The model expects 4.12 goals (HK Kopavogur 2.49 · IF Vestri 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in HK Kopavogur vs IF Vestri?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.