Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

IR Reykjavik1.34

Fylkir Reykjavik2.22

1X2

21% 23% 56%

IR Reykjavik Draw Fylkir Reykjavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

IR Reykjavik 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLDLD

Fylkir Reykjavik 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

IR Reykjavik 3–3 Fylkir Reykjavik (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IR Reykjavik 1424 · Fylkir Reykjavik 1578

	IR Reykjavik	Draw	Fylkir Reykjavik
Our model	22%	22%	57%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fylkir Reykjavik (rating 1424 vs 1578).
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IR Reykjavik	Fylkir Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 7	2.5 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:37 +34’	4.33	3.80	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IR Reykjavik 3–0–3 Fylkir Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	2-1 HT 1-1	IR Reykjavik
13/09/25 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	1-2 HT 1-2	Fylkir Reykjavik
04/07/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-2 HT 0-0	IR Reykjavik
24/02/24 Iceland League Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	0-1 HT 0-1	IR Reykjavik
22/01/24 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	3-1 HT 1-0	IR Reykjavik
18/01/23 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	IR Reykjavik	3-0 HT 1-0	Fylkir Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	14	10	1	3	43	21	31
2	Fylkir Reykjavik	14	10	0	4	32	20	30
3	HK Kopavogur	15	9	1	5	36	26	28
4	Throttur Reykjavik	14	8	3	3	27	14	27
5	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	14	7	1	6	29	28	22
6	IF Vestri	15	6	3	6	26	31	21
7	Njardvik	14	6	2	6	20	19	20
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	14	5	4	5	19	19	19
9	Grindavik	14	2	8	4	15	18	14
10	IR Reykjavik	15	3	4	8	25	36	13
11	Volsungur	14	1	5	8	17	34	8
12	KF Aegir	15	2	2	11	19	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IR Reykjavik	Fylkir Reykjavik
Grindavik	0-0 D	1-0 W
HK Kopavogur	1-5 L	0-2 L
Throttur Reykjavik	1-1 D	1-3 L
Afturelding	0-1 L	1-1 D
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	2-1 W	5-2 W
Njardvik	1-5 L	4-1 W
IF Vestri	0-1 L	5-2 W
KF Aegir	1-4 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fylkir Reykjavik (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IR Reykjavik

LLLWDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-5	6	2	L
10/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
03/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
26/06	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
21/06	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	3-1	4-4	8	4	D
17/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-1	13	3	W
05/06	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	1-5	8	2	L
31/05	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
27/05	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-4	7	4	L

Fylkir Reykjavik

LLDWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Afturelding Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W
03/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-2	3	2	W
26/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
21/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	5-2	10	0	W
17/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
13/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland Cup	0-1	1-1	16	9	D
06/06	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
31/05	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-5	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fylkir Reykjavik win (56%). Probabilities: IR Reykjavik 21%, draw 23%, Fylkir Reykjavik 56%.

How many goals are expected in IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model expects 3.56 goals (IR Reykjavik 1.34 · Fylkir Reykjavik 2.22), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.