Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs KF Aegir
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.04Total
Grotta Seltjarnarnes2.57
KF Aegir1.46
1X2
Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Draw
KF Aegir
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Grotta Seltjarnarnes
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
KF Aegir
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grotta Seltjarnarnes
3–2–0
KF Aegir
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1537 · KF Aegir 1415
| Grotta Seltjarnarnes | Draw | KF Aegir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grotta Seltjarnarnes (rating 1537 vs 1415).
- H2H favours Grotta Seltjarnarnes: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grotta Seltjarnarnes | KF Aegir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.8 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 3–2–0 KF Aegir
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild | KF Aegir | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
| 23/08/25 Iceland 2 Deild | KF Aegir | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
| 14/06/25 Iceland 2 Deild | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | 3-3 HT 1-2 | KF Aegir |
| 21/08/23 Iceland 1 Deild | KF Aegir | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes |
| 15/06/23 Iceland 1 Deild | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | 2-1 HT 0-0 | KF Aegir |
Standings · Iceland 1 Deild
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Fylkir Reykjavik | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | HK Kopavogur | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 25 |
| 4 | Throttur Reykjavik | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | IF Vestri | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 21 |
| 6 | Njardvik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Leiknir Reykjavik | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 8 | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 19 |
| 9 | Grindavik | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 10 | IR Reykjavik | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 36 | 12 |
| 11 | Volsungur | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 8 |
| 12 | KF Aegir | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grotta Seltjarnarnes | KF Aegir |
|---|---|---|
| Grindavik | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Leiknir Reykjavik | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| HK Kopavogur | 2-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Volsungur | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Fylkir Reykjavik | 2-5 L | 2-4 L |
| IR Reykjavik | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Throttur Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| IF Vestri | 5-3 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grotta Seltjarnarnes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 10/07 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 27/06 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 17/06 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
1-1 | 5-3 | 10 | 4 | W |
KF Aegir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild |
3-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-4 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/06 | Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild |
1-2 | 1-8 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 26/06 | Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 17/06 | IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Breidablik Iceland Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 05/06 | Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild |
0-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs KF Aegir?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Grotta Seltjarnarnes win (60%). Probabilities: Grotta Seltjarnarnes 60%, draw 20%, KF Aegir 19%.
How many goals are expected in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs KF Aegir?
The model expects 4.04 goals (Grotta Seltjarnarnes 2.57 · KF Aegir 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs KF Aegir?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.