Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 28/07, 21:15

Prediction: KF Aegir vs Njardvik

Team pages: KF Aegir · Njardvik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

KF Aegir1.37

Njardvik2.56

1X2

18% 20% 62%

KF Aegir Draw Njardvik

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

KF Aegir 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLLL

Njardvik 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

KF Aegir 1–2–3 Njardvik (6 last)

Njardvik0-0KF Aegir
KF Aegir1-0Njardvik
Njardvik2-2KF Aegir
KF Aegir1-3Njardvik
Njardvik6-0KF Aegir
Njardvik8-0KF Aegir

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Aegir 1402 · Njardvik 1523

	KF Aegir	Draw	Njardvik
Our model	18%	19%	62%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Njardvik (rating 1402 vs 1523).
H2H favours Njardvik: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Aegir	Njardvik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	3.1 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.13 ★
2	1.44 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:54 +10’	5.00	4.50	1.44
15:03 +2’	5.25▲	4.33▼	1.44
16:01 +3’	5.50▲	4.50▲	1.42▼
08:00 +1’	5.25▼	4.33▼	1.44▲
10:56 +6’	5.00▼	4.50▲	1.45▲
11:46 +18’	5.25▲	4.33▼	1.44▼
12:56 +6’	5.00▼	4.50▲	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:04	6.05	5.23	1.39
22:03	5.76▼	5.15▼	1.41▲
23:02	5.49▼	5.06▼	1.43▲
08:01	5.46▼	5.04▼	1.43▲
13:02	5.50▲	5.13▲	1.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Aegir 1–2–3 Njardvik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	0-0 HT 0-0	KF Aegir
16/07/23 Iceland 1 Deild	KF Aegir	1-0 HT 1-0	Njardvik
11/05/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	2-2 HT 1-2	KF Aegir
26/08/22 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Aegir	1-3	Njardvik
22/06/22 Iceland 2 Deild	Njardvik	6-0	KF Aegir
23/02/20 Iceland League Cup	Njardvik	8-0 HT 5-0	KF Aegir

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	14	10	1	3	43	21	31
2	Throttur Reykjavik	15	9	3	3	32	15	30
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	15	10	0	5	32	22	30
4	HK Kopavogur	16	9	1	6	38	29	28
5	Njardvik	15	7	2	6	23	21	23
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	14	7	1	6	29	28	22
7	IF Vestri	15	6	3	6	26	31	21
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	15	5	4	6	20	24	19
9	IR Reykjavik	16	4	4	8	27	36	16
10	Grindavik	15	2	8	5	15	20	14
11	Volsungur	15	2	5	8	19	34	11
12	KF Aegir	15	2	2	11	19	42	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Aegir	Njardvik
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-6 L	1-2 L
HK Kopavogur	3-4 L	3-2 W
Fylkir Reykjavik	2-4 L	1-4 L
Afturelding	1-8 L	0-2 L
Grindavik	0-0 D	5-4 W
Throttur Reykjavik	1-3 L	1-0 W
IF Vestri	2-3 L	3-0 W
Leiknir Reykjavik	0-3 L	1-0 W
Volsungur	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Njardvik (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KF Aegir

WLLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-6	11	0	L
10/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	3-4	3-4	2	3	L
03/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
29/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	1-8	1	1	L
26/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/06	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-3	5	7	L
17/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
12/06	Breidablik Iceland Cup	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
05/06	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
31/05	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	3-2	3	3	W

Njardvik

WLWLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
17/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-4	2	4	L
10/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	3-3	5-4	6	4	W
03/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	15	6	W
26/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
19/06	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
13/06	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-2	12	4	L
05/06	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	5-1	6	2	W
31/05	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
27/05	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	3-0	3-0	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Aegir vs Njardvik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Njardvik win (62%). Probabilities: KF Aegir 18%, draw 20%, Njardvik 62%.

How many goals are expected in KF Aegir vs Njardvik?

The model expects 3.93 goals (KF Aegir 1.37 · Njardvik 2.56), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Aegir vs Njardvik?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.