Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 29/07, 21:45

Prediction: Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding

Team pages: Throttur Reykjavik · Afturelding

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Throttur Reykjavik1.83

Afturelding1.73

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Throttur Reykjavik Draw Afturelding

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Throttur Reykjavik 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Afturelding 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Throttur Reykjavik 1–5 Afturelding (6 last)

Afturelding4-3Throttur Reykjavik
Afturelding1-0Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik1-2Afturelding
Throttur Reykjavik2-1Afturelding
Afturelding1-0Throttur Reykjavik
Afturelding3-1Throttur Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Throttur Reykjavik 1549 · Afturelding 1588

	Throttur Reykjavik	Draw	Afturelding
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Afturelding: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Throttur Reykjavik	Afturelding
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.70

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.71
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.56

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +25’	2.25	3.70	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +1’	2.39	3.71	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Reykjavik 1–0–5 Afturelding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	4-3 HT 3-2	Throttur Reykjavik
19/08/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	1-0 HT 1-0	Throttur Reykjavik
13/06/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Throttur Reykjavik	1-2 HT 1-1	Afturelding
16/09/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Throttur Reykjavik	2-1 HT 0-0	Afturelding
12/07/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	1-0 HT 0-0	Throttur Reykjavik
28/08/21 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	3-1 HT 1-0	Throttur Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	14	10	1	3	43	21	31
2	Throttur Reykjavik	15	9	3	3	32	15	30
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	15	10	0	5	32	22	30
4	HK Kopavogur	16	9	1	6	38	29	28
5	Njardvik	15	7	2	6	23	21	23
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	14	7	1	6	29	28	22
7	IF Vestri	15	6	3	6	26	31	21
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	15	5	4	6	20	24	19
9	IR Reykjavik	16	4	4	8	27	36	16
10	Grindavik	15	2	8	5	15	20	14
11	Volsungur	15	2	5	8	19	34	11
12	KF Aegir	15	2	2	11	19	42	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Throttur Reykjavik	Afturelding
Leiknir Reykjavik	5-1 W	3-2 W
Volsungur	1-0 W	6-1 W
IR Reykjavik	1-1 D	1-0 W
Njardvik	0-1 L	2-0 W
IF Vestri	1-1 D	0-2 L
KF Aegir	3-1 W	8-1 W
HK Kopavogur	2-0 W	1-2 L
Fylkir Reykjavik	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Throttur Reykjavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	5-1	8	5	W
18/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
03/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
21/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	3-1	8	7	W
12/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
06/06	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
01/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/05	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	2-3	11	2	L

Afturelding

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	11	10	D
16/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
11/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	4	9	W
03/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	8-1	13	1	W
26/06	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
21/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
10/06	Stjarnan Iceland Cup	0-1	3-1	0	9	W
05/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-2	13	5	L
31/05	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	5-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Throttur Reykjavik win (40%). Probabilities: Throttur Reykjavik 40%, draw 24%, Afturelding 36%.

How many goals are expected in Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Throttur Reykjavik 1.83 · Afturelding 1.73), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.