Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 06/08, 21:15

Prediction: IR Reykjavik vs KF Aegir

Team pages: IR Reykjavik · KF Aegir

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.86Total
IR Reykjavik2.5
KF Aegir1.36
1X2
61% 20% 19%
IR Reykjavik Draw KF Aegir
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
IR Reykjavik 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
LLWDLLDLDW
KF Aegir 0-1-9 (W-D-L)
LLLLDLLLLL
Head-to-head
IR Reykjavik 3–1–1 KF Aegir (5 last)
  • KF Aegir4-1IR Reykjavik
  • IR Reykjavik6-1KF Aegir
  • KF Aegir2-2IR Reykjavik
  • IR Reykjavik3-2KF Aegir
  • IR Reykjavik1-0KF Aegir
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IR Reykjavik 1460 · KF Aegir 1387
IR ReykjavikDrawKF Aegir
Our model61%20%19%
Market61%20%19%
Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IR Reykjavik (rating 1460 vs 1387).
  • H2H favours IR Reykjavik: 3-1-1.
  • High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

IR ReykjavikKF Aegir
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 21 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.80.7 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/40/30%10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)2.7 / 6.71.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.5 / 0.22.8 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · IR Reykjavik 311 KF Aegir

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DateHomeScoreAway
27/05/26
Iceland 1 Deild
KF Aegir4-1
HT 0-0
IR Reykjavik
24/02/23
Iceland League Cup B
IR Reykjavik6-1
HT 5-0
KF Aegir
10/09/22
Iceland 2 Deild
KF Aegir2-2IR Reykjavik
04/07/22
Iceland 2 Deild
IR Reykjavik3-2
HT 1-1
KF Aegir
12/04/18
Iceland Cup
IR Reykjavik1-0
HT 0-0
KF Aegir

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Throttur Reykjavik 161033 361633
2 Fylkir Reykjavik 161105 352333
3 Afturelding 151014 442531
4 HK Kopavogur 16916 382928
5 Njardvik 16826 242126
6 Grotta Seltjarnarnes 15816 322825
7 IF Vestri 16637 263421
8 Leiknir Reykjavik 16547 202519
9 Grindavik 16385 162017
10 IR Reykjavik 16448 273616
11 Volsungur 16259 203711
12 KF Aegir 162212 19438

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentIR ReykjavikKF Aegir
Fylkir Reykjavik 2-0 W 2-4 L
Grindavik 0-0 D 0-0 D
HK Kopavogur 1-5 L 3-4 L
Throttur Reykjavik 1-1 D 1-3 L
Afturelding 0-1 L 1-8 L
Leiknir Reykjavik 1-2 L 0-3 L
Grotta Seltjarnarnes 2-1 W 1-6 L
Njardvik 1-5 L 0-1 L
IF Vestri 0-1 L 2-3 L
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 5 L 0 W 1 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: IR Reykjavik (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IR Reykjavik

LLWDLLDLDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
25/07 Fylkir Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
1-0 2-0 41 W
18/07 Grindavik
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 0-0 53 D
14/07 HK Kopavogur
Iceland 1 Deild
0-4 1-5 62 L
10/07 Throttur Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 1-1 210 D
03/07 Afturelding
Iceland 1 Deild
0-1 0-1 72 L
26/06 Leiknir Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
1-0 1-2 79 L
21/06 Volsungur
Iceland 1 Deild
3-1 4-4 84 D
17/06 Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 2-1 133 W
05/06 Njardvik
Iceland 1 Deild
1-2 1-5 82 L
31/05 IF Vestri
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 0-1 71 L

KF Aegir

LLLLDLLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/07 Njardvik
Iceland 1 Deild
0-1 0-1 26 L
18/07 Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Iceland 1 Deild
0-4 1-6 110 L
10/07 HK Kopavogur
Iceland 1 Deild
3-4 3-4 23 L
03/07 Fylkir Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
1-4 2-4 72 L
29/06 Afturelding
Iceland 1 Deild
1-2 1-8 11 L
26/06 Grindavik
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 0-0 71 D
21/06 Throttur Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
1-0 1-3 57 L
17/06 IF Vestri
Iceland 1 Deild
1-2 2-3 43 L
12/06 Breidablik
Iceland Cup
0-2 0-3 L
05/06 Leiknir Reykjavik
Iceland 1 Deild
0-0 0-3 13 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IR Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IR Reykjavik win (61%). Probabilities: IR Reykjavik 61%, draw 20%, KF Aegir 19%.

How many goals are expected in IR Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

The model expects 3.86 goals (IR Reykjavik 2.5 · KF Aegir 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IR Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.