Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 13/08, 21:15

Prediction: Fylkir Reykjavik vs Afturelding

Team pages: Fylkir Reykjavik · Afturelding

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

Fylkir Reykjavik2.11

Afturelding1.86

1X2

43% 23% 34%

Fylkir Reykjavik Draw Afturelding

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fylkir Reykjavik 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDLWL

Afturelding 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Fylkir Reykjavik 1–2–1 Afturelding (4 last)

Fylkir Reykjavik1-1Afturelding
Afturelding5-1Fylkir Reykjavik
Afturelding0-2Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik2-2Afturelding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fylkir Reykjavik 1513 · Afturelding 1567

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Draw	Afturelding
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afturelding (rating 1513 vs 1567).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fylkir Reykjavik	Afturelding
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	2.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +6’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:25 +1’	2.31	3.77	2.63
05:25	2.31	3.80▲	2.62▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fylkir Reykjavik 1–2–1 Afturelding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 Iceland Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-0	Afturelding
31/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	5-1 HT 4-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
02/09/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Afturelding	0-2 HT 0-2	Fylkir Reykjavik
01/07/22 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	2-2 HT 2-0	Afturelding

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	16	11	1	4	48	26	34
2	Throttur Reykjavik	17	10	4	3	37	17	34
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	17	11	0	6	35	26	33
4	Njardvik	17	9	2	6	27	22	29
5	HK Kopavogur	17	9	1	7	40	32	28
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	16	8	2	6	33	29	26
7	Leiknir Reykjavik	17	6	4	7	23	25	22
8	IF Vestri	17	6	3	8	27	37	21
9	IR Reykjavik	17	5	4	8	30	38	19
10	Grindavik	17	3	8	6	17	24	17
11	Volsungur	17	3	5	9	23	39	14
12	KF Aegir	17	2	2	13	21	46	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fylkir Reykjavik	Afturelding
Leiknir Reykjavik	0-3 L	3-2 W
Volsungur	3-1 W	6-1 W
IR Reykjavik	0-2 L	1-0 W
Njardvik	4-1 W	2-0 W
IF Vestri	5-2 W	0-2 L
KF Aegir	4-2 W	8-1 W
Grindavik	1-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Afturelding (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fylkir Reykjavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
25/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
21/07	Afturelding Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W
03/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-2	3	2	W
26/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
21/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	5-2	10	0	W
17/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	12	2	W

Afturelding

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	6	2	W
29/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
21/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	11	10	D
16/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
11/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	4	9	W
03/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	8-1	13	1	W
26/06	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
21/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
10/06	Stjarnan Iceland Cup	0-1	3-1	0	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fylkir Reykjavik win (43%). Probabilities: Fylkir Reykjavik 43%, draw 23%, Afturelding 34%.

How many goals are expected in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

The model expects 3.96 goals (Fylkir Reykjavik 2.11 · Afturelding 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fylkir Reykjavik vs Afturelding?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.