Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 13/08, 20:00

Prediction: KF Aegir vs Volsungur

Team pages: KF Aegir · Volsungur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

KF Aegir2.13

Volsungur2.01

1X2

41% 23% 36%

KF Aegir Draw Volsungur

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KF Aegir 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLLL

Volsungur 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLWLW

Head-to-head

KF Aegir 3–1–1 Volsungur (5 last)

Volsungur2-3KF Aegir
KF Aegir0-0Volsungur
Volsungur1-2KF Aegir
Volsungur2-1KF Aegir
KF Aegir2-1Volsungur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Aegir 1381 · Volsungur 1476

	KF Aegir	Draw	Volsungur
Our model	42%	22%	37%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Volsungur (rating 1381 vs 1476).
H2H favours KF Aegir: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Aegir	Volsungur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.5	1.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 2	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.6	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.36 ★
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.95
2	2.63 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +5’	2.05	3.80	2.63
22:38 +4’	2.20▲	3.75▼	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:40 +2’	2.36	3.95	2.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Aegir 3–1–1 Volsungur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Volsungur	2-3 HT 0-2	KF Aegir
25/08/24 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Aegir	0-0 HT 0-0	Volsungur
23/06/24 Iceland 2 Deild	Volsungur	1-2 HT 0-1	KF Aegir
17/08/22 Iceland 2 Deild	Volsungur	2-1 HT 1-0	KF Aegir
11/06/22 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Aegir	2-1	Volsungur

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	16	11	1	4	48	26	34
2	Throttur Reykjavik	17	10	4	3	37	17	34
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	17	11	0	6	35	26	33
4	Njardvik	17	9	2	6	27	22	29
5	HK Kopavogur	17	9	1	7	40	32	28
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	16	8	2	6	33	29	26
7	Leiknir Reykjavik	17	6	4	7	23	25	22
8	IF Vestri	17	6	3	8	27	37	21
9	IR Reykjavik	17	5	4	8	30	38	19
10	Grindavik	17	3	8	6	17	24	17
11	Volsungur	17	3	5	9	23	39	14
12	KF Aegir	17	2	2	13	21	46	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Aegir	Volsungur
IR Reykjavik	2-3 L	4-4 D
Njardvik	0-1 L	2-1 W
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-6 L	2-2 D
HK Kopavogur	3-4 L	3-2 W
Fylkir Reykjavik	2-4 L	1-3 L
Afturelding	1-8 L	1-6 L
Grindavik	0-0 D	2-0 W
Throttur Reykjavik	1-3 L	0-1 L
IF Vestri	2-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 8 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Volsungur (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KF Aegir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
28/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
18/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-6	11	0	L
10/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	3-4	3-4	2	3	L
03/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
29/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	1-8	1	1	L
26/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/06	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-3	5	7	L
17/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
12/06	Breidablik Iceland Cup	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Volsungur

LWDDDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
29/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-3	1	5	L
24/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	13	2	W
18/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
11/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	1-6	7	9	L
04/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	6	7	D
27/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-3	4-4	4	4	D
13/06	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
06/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-5	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Aegir vs Volsungur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KF Aegir win (41%). Probabilities: KF Aegir 41%, draw 23%, Volsungur 36%.

How many goals are expected in KF Aegir vs Volsungur?

The model expects 4.14 goals (KF Aegir 2.13 · Volsungur 2.01), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Aegir vs Volsungur?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.