Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 17/08, 21:15

Prediction: Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik

Team pages: Throttur Reykjavik · Fylkir Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Throttur Reykjavik1.92

Fylkir Reykjavik1.48

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Throttur Reykjavik Draw Fylkir Reykjavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Throttur Reykjavik 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Fylkir Reykjavik 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Throttur Reykjavik 5–1 Fylkir Reykjavik (6 last)

Fylkir Reykjavik1-3Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik3-0Fylkir Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik2-1Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik1-2Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik2-0Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik3-0Throttur Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Throttur Reykjavik 1565 · Fylkir Reykjavik 1503

	Throttur Reykjavik	Draw	Fylkir Reykjavik
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Throttur Reykjavik (rating 1565 vs 1503).
H2H favours Throttur Reykjavik: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Throttur Reykjavik	Fylkir Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	2.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 1.91▼	Pinn 2.01 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.71
2	2.63 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.21

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:53 +2’	2.20	3.60	2.63
10:03 +2’	1.91▼	3.70▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:37	2.01	3.71	3.23
08:24 +1’	2.01	3.71	3.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Reykjavik 5–0–1 Fylkir Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-3 HT 0-1	Throttur Reykjavik
05/03/26 Iceland League Cup	Throttur Reykjavik	3-0 HT 1-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
29/07/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Throttur Reykjavik	2-1 HT 1-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
23/05/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-2 HT 0-1	Throttur Reykjavik
15/01/25 Iceland Pre-Season Cup	Throttur Reykjavik	2-0 HT 1-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
29/02/24 Iceland League Cup	Fylkir Reykjavik	3-0 HT 2-0	Throttur Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	17	11	2	4	51	29	35
2	Throttur Reykjavik	18	10	4	4	38	19	34
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	18	11	1	6	38	29	34
4	Njardvik	18	10	2	6	31	23	32
5	HK Kopavogur	18	10	1	7	42	33	31
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	17	8	2	7	34	33	26
7	IF Vestri	18	7	3	8	28	37	24
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	18	6	4	8	24	27	22
9	Grindavik	18	4	8	6	19	25	20
10	IR Reykjavik	18	5	4	9	30	39	19
11	Volsungur	18	4	5	9	25	39	17
12	KF Aegir	18	2	2	14	21	48	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Throttur Reykjavik	Fylkir Reykjavik
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-1 D	5-2 W
Afturelding	4-1 W	3-3 D
Leiknir Reykjavik	5-1 W	0-3 L
Volsungur	1-0 W	3-1 W
IR Reykjavik	1-1 D	0-2 L
Njardvik	0-1 L	4-1 W
IF Vestri	1-1 D	5-2 W
KF Aegir	3-1 W	4-2 W
HK Kopavogur	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Throttur Reykjavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
29/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	3-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	5-1	8	5	W
18/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
03/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
21/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	3-1	8	7	W
12/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

Fylkir Reykjavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
07/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
25/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
21/07	Afturelding Iceland Cup	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W
03/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-2	3	2	W
26/06	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
21/06	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	5-2	10	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Throttur Reykjavik win (47%). Probabilities: Throttur Reykjavik 47%, draw 24%, Fylkir Reykjavik 29%.

How many goals are expected in Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Throttur Reykjavik 1.92 · Fylkir Reykjavik 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Throttur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.