Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)
Expected goals: 3.32 (Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.29 · Box Hill (W) 2.03). The model gives 23% home, 23% draw, 54% away. Over 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Melbourne Victory NPL (W) is 5-1-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Box Hill (W) 5-3-2 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Melbourne Victory NPL (W) won 0 and Box Hill (W) 1.
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | Draw | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 24% | 22% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Box Hill (W) (rating 1493 vs 1557).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.4 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 0–0–1 Box Hill (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 4-1 HT 4-0 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Royals (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | Box Hill (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 4 | South Melbourne (W) | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 18 | 35 |
| 5 | Avondale FC (W) | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 20 | 32 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 31 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 29 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 23 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 72 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 69 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | Box Hill (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Keilor Park (W) | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| South Melbourne (W) | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Avondale FC (W) | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Preston Lions (W) | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Box Hill (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 29/04 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
Box Hill (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 1-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Box Hill (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 23%, draw 23%, Box Hill (W) 54%.
How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1.29 · Box Hill (W) 2.03), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL (W) vs Box Hill (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.